Last Updated: September 30, 2026 Original Published: February 12, 2026 Status: This is a living policy tracker and will be updated as official actions occur.

UPDATE, September 30, 2026: the freeze is transmitted, not proposed. On August 26, 2026 the President sent Congress the alternative pay plan for January 2027 as House Document 119-189. It holds base pay and locality pay for civilian federal employees at 2026 rates, directs OPM to raise law-enforcement special rates 3.8%, and sets military raises of 7.0%, 6.0%, and 5.0% by grade band in the same document. Under 5 U.S.C. 5303(b)(1)(B) the plan takes effect automatically in January unless Congress enacts a different percentage. The last scheduled must-pass vehicle before the December pay order is the funding bill that replaces the stopgap expiring December 11, 2026. 110 lawmakers asked leadership on September 15 to override; no bill or date was named. Our 2027 GS pay scale tracker carries the running status.

Jump to: Can Congress Still Block the Freeze?

Can Congress Still Block the Freeze? The December 11 Gate

The alternative pay plan is not a request. Under 5 U.S.C. 5303(b)(1), when the President decides the automatic raise is inappropriate, he transmits a plan to Congress before September 1 and then adjusts pay "in accordance with such plan" on the day the automatic raise would have taken effect. Locality pay runs on a parallel authority, 5 U.S.C. 5304a. The August 26 letter exercised both. That means the default outcome is already set: if Congress does nothing, 2027 GS base and locality rates are 2026 rates.

The only thing that displaces the plan is an enacted law that sets a different percentage. A letter, a resolution, or an unpassed FAIR Act does nothing. It has happened before. After the 2019 freeze, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2019 (Public Law 116-6, signed February 15, 2019) required a pay adjustment, and Executive Order 13866 then delivered 1.9% retroactive to the first pay period of January. Note the date: the fix arrived six weeks into the year and was applied backward.

That is why December 11 matters. The stopgap signed September 2 runs only to December 11, 2026 (Public Law 119-103, section 106(3)). The funding bill that replaces it is the last scheduled must-pass vehicle before the December executive order. On September 15, 110 lawmakers (98 House, 12 Senate) asked leadership in a letter to override the freeze; the letter named no bill and no date. The December 11 framing is ours, not the signers'. If the stopgap is simply extended again with no pay provision, the December order issues, 0% takes effect in January, and later legislation, retroactive or prospective, becomes the remedy. Worse for cash flow, not fatal.

The FY2027 Budget Proposal (April 2026), Superseded by the August 26 Plan

On April 3, 2026, the White House submitted its FY2027 budget request. For federal employees, the headline was stark: civilian workers are proposed to receive no pay increase in 2027.

What the proposal actually says

The FY2027 budget proposes a pay freeze for civilian federal employees. OMB confirmed the position directly: civilian workers would receive no pay increase next January under the administration's plan.

At the same time, the budget proposed a larger raise for military personnel, framed around national security readiness and military recruitment and retention; the August 26 letter later set it at 7.0%, 6.0%, and 5.0% by grade band. The contrast, military raises while civilians get 0%, is the number that set off 1,055 upvotes and 168 comments on Reddit's r/fednews within hours of the announcement.

Every major outlet that covers federal employment ran the story the same day: FedWeek, FedSmith, GovExec, and Federal News Network all published within hours of the budget release.

The political dynamics

The civilian pay freeze proposal fits a pattern in this administration's approach to the federal workforce. The federal workforce has already seen significant reductions through DOGE and RIF actions in 2025-2026. Pairing that with a pay freeze signals a continued posture of minimizing civilian federal payroll costs.

The military vs. civilian contrast is politically calculated. Military pay raises poll well across party lines. Holding civilian pay while boosting military creates a difficult vote for Congress members who might want to increase civilian pay, opposing it means appearing to shortchange the military.

That said, Congress does not have to accept the administration's budget as written. The legislative process allows for alternative pay provisions, and federal employee unions and congressional allies have already begun pushing back.

When has a 0% raise happened before?

Federal employees have lived through civilian pay freezes before. The most recent example was 2011-2013, when President Obama signed a three-year pay freeze as part of federal deficit reduction. Employees received 0% general increases in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Locality pay adjustments were also frozen during that period.

Before that, the last time civilian pay was frozen for a full year was 1995. In both historical cases, the freeze eventually ended and pay resumed increasing, but the years without raises created cumulative salary gaps that took years to recover.

Congressional response

The response from federal employee advocates in Congress was swift. Democrats who backed the FAIR Act, including Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) and Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA), called the 0% proposal unacceptable. Federal employee unions including AFGE and NTEU issued statements opposing the freeze.

The practical path for Congress is one of several: pass the FAIR Act or a modified version of it, attach alternative pay language to an appropriations bill, or let the administration's position stand. Given current congressional dynamics and the administration's posture on federal workforce spending, a 0% or near-0% outcome cannot be ruled out.

April 5-8 update: In the days following the budget release, Senate Democrats on the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee formally requested a hearing on the civilian pay freeze proposal. NTEU President Doreen Greenwald called the 0% proposal "a betrayal of the federal workforce" and announced the union would intensify lobbying on pay provisions in the FY2027 appropriations process. AFGE issued a joint statement with NTEU urging Congress to reject the freeze and pass the FAIR Act. H.R. 7480 has 35 cosponsors, including Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) as an original cosponsor, which corrects an earlier version of this post that said no Republican had signed on. The bill has had exactly one action since February 10, 2026: referral to House Oversight.

What 0% actually means for your paycheck

A 0% general pay increase means your base salary stays flat going into 2027. There are some important caveats:

Step increases still happen. Within-grade increases (WGIs) are based on time-in-step and performance, not the annual pay order. If you are due a step increase in 2027, you will still receive it. A GS-9 Step 3 advancing to Step 4, for example, would still see that increase regardless of the annual raise.

Locality pay could also be frozen. The 2011-2013 freeze included locality pay adjustments. If the administration follows the same structure, your locality percentage would not change either.

The dollar impact by grade and step:

Grade Step Current approx. salary (DC locality) 0% raise 4.1% raise Difference
GS-9 5 ~$74,000 $74,000 ~$77,034 ~$3,034
GS-12 5 ~$109,000 $109,000 ~$113,469 ~$4,469
GS-14 5 ~$155,000 $155,000 ~$161,355 ~$6,355

Those were approximate figures. Here is the exact version for the Rest-of-U.S. locality area, computed from the 2026 OPM base table with the 17.06% Rest-of-U.S. locality rate held constant in the frozen and base-only columns. The "+1 point locality" column applies the FAIR Act's section 3 increase uniformly, a modeling assumption, because OPM allocates the locality pool across areas and no per-area 2027 allocation exists.

Grade (step 5, Rest of U.S.) 2026 = frozen 2027 2027 at 3.1% base only Forgone 2027 at 3.1% base + 1 pt locality Forgone
GS-7 $57,188 $58,961 $1,773 $59,465 $2,277
GS-9 $69,954 $72,122 $2,168 $72,739 $2,785
GS-11 $84,638 $87,262 $2,624 $88,007 $3,369
GS-12 $101,443 $104,588 $3,145 $105,481 $4,038
GS-13 $120,629 $124,369 $3,740 $125,431 $4,802

*FedTools computation, September 30, 2026: base rate × 1.031 (FAIR Act section 2) × locality factor; base carried unrounded, annual salary rounded once to the nearest dollar. GS-12 step 5 example: $86,659 × 1.1706 = $101,443 frozen; $86,659 × 1.031 × 1.1706 = $104,588; $86,659 × 1.031 × 1.1806 = $105,481. Use the GS Pay Calculator for your own grade, step, and locality area.

For FERS retirement planning: Your high-3 average salary is directly affected by pay raises in your final years. If you are within 5 years of retirement, a 0% raise in 2027 reduces your high-3 compared to any positive raise scenario. The impact compounds if the freeze extends beyond one year.

What the 2027 FAIR Act Proposes

The FAIR Act was introduced on February 10, 2026 in both chambers before the budget proposal changed the picture.

In the bill text circulated by sponsors:

  • Section 2 sets a 3.1% increase for statutory pay systems for calendar year 2027.
  • Section 3 sets a 1.0% locality adjustment for calendar year 2027.

That is the source of the "4.1%" headline. The Senate version (S. 3823) was introduced by Sen. Brian Schatz with 11 original cosponsors, including Alsobrooks, Padilla, Warren, Blumenthal, Van Hollen, Sanders, Hirono, Kaine, Warner, Schiff, and Wyden; the House companion (H.R. 7480) was introduced by Rep. James Walkinshaw and carries 35 cosponsors. Section 2 also covers prevailing-rate employees, a detail most coverage omits.

The sponsors argued that 4.1% aligns with the Employment Cost Index (ECI), which is the benchmark federal pay is supposed to track under the Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act (FEPCA). The argument is that federal pay has fallen behind private-sector wages and the FAIR Act is a step toward closing that gap.

How This Compares to Past FAIR Act Proposals and Final Outcomes

The FAIR Act has been introduced nearly every year since 2014. It has never been enacted at the proposed level. The final raise has always come through the standard presidential pay-setting process instead.

Year FAIR Act proposal Final raise enacted
2024 8.7% 5.2%
2025 7.4% 2.0%
2026 4.3% 1.0% (EO 14368)
2027 4.1% TBD

The pattern is clear: the proposal sets a ceiling, not a floor. For 2026, the final raise was just 1.0%, well below the 4.3% FAIR Act proposal. What is different about 2027 is that the administration's opening counter-offer is not a modest reduction from the FAIR Act, it is a complete freeze.

The gap between proposal and outcome has been widening. In 2024, the FAIR Act proposed 8.7% and the final raise was 5.2%, a 3.5-point gap. In 2025, the proposal was 7.4% and the final raise was 2.0%, a 5.4-point gap. In 2026, the 4.3% proposal yielded 1.0%, a 3.3-point gap. The 2027 gap, if the administration's position holds, would be 4.1 points, and the outcome would be 0%.

Where This Sits in the Process

The sequence of events that determines the final 2027 pay number:

  1. April 3, 2026: Budget proposal out with 0% civilian. FAIR Act (4.1%) already introduced and referred to committee, where it still sits.
  2. August 26, 2026 (done): The President transmitted the alternative pay plan under 5 U.S.C. 5303(b) and 5304a as House Document 119-189, ahead of the statutory "before September 1" deadline. This is the authority every president since 1994 has used to displace the automatic raise.
  3. September 15, 2026: 110 lawmakers asked leadership to override the freeze. No bill, no date. 3a. December 11, 2026: The current stopgap expires (Public Law 119-103, section 106(3)); the replacement funding bill is the last scheduled vehicle before the pay order. For a detailed explanation of how FEPCA, the alternative plan loophole, and the dollar impact by grade work together, see our FEPCA explainer, which shows a GS-12 Step 5 in DC loses between $3,482 and $4,748 per year under the 0% freeze compared to the formula-driven raise.
  4. Late 2026 (typically December): Final pay order and schedules are issued.
  5. January 2027: New rates take effect at the first applicable pay period.

The next hard checkpoint is December 11, 2026, when the current stopgap expires. December 11 is a funding deadline, not a legal cutoff for overriding the plan. Legislation after that date is still possible, as 2019 showed, but it would arrive after the January rates are set and would apply retroactively or prospectively on its own terms.

Planning Scenarios for 2027

Given the contested picture, here are the scenarios worth modeling:

Scenario A: 0% (the transmitted plan) No general pay increase. Locality pay likely frozen. Step increases still apply. This is the outcome if Congress does not pass alternative pay legislation.

Scenario B: 1.0% to 2.0% (a retroactive compromise rider) A token raise as political compromise. Mirrors what happened in 2026 (1.0% final vs. 4.3% proposed). Possible if Congress pushes back but the administration holds most of its ground.

Scenario C: 3.0% to 4.1% (FAIR Act wins partially or fully) Requires a significant legislative push or a change in political dynamics. The less likely scenario in the current environment but not impossible.

For quick dollar estimates at the 0% and 4.1% bookends:

Current salary 0% 4.1% Difference
$60,000 $60,000 $62,460 $2,460
$80,000 $80,000 $83,280 $3,280
$100,000 $100,000 $104,100 $4,100
$130,000 $130,000 $135,330 $5,330

For a precise projection using your actual grade, step, and locality, use the GS Pay Calculator. If you are in a high-cost area like DC, San Francisco, or New York, your locality component is already a large share of your total pay, a freeze on locality adjustments hits harder there than in lower-locality areas.

For the broader picture of how pay decisions fit into federal employment trends right now, see the State of the Federal Workforce 2026.

What to Watch Next

  1. Done, August 26, 2026: plan transmitted (House Document 119-189); 0% base and locality is the operative determination. 1a. December 11, 2026: the stopgap expires; watch whether the replacement funding bill carries a pay percentage.
  2. Summer/fall appropriations: Congressional debates on pay provisions in spending bills.
  3. Union and advocacy response: AFGE, NTEU, and NARFE will be active on this. Watch for any bipartisan support for a positive raise.
  4. Late 2026 (December): Final pay order issued. This is when the number locks in.
  5. January 2027: New rates effective at first pay period.

We'll update this post as each milestone hits. Bookmark it or check back after December 11 for the next major development. Retirees are on a different track: see the 2027 COLA for federal retirees. Set up your scenarios in the GS Pay Calculator now so you can plug in the final rate the moment it is announced.

FAQ

Is the 2027 federal pay raise 4.1% right now?

No. As of September 30, 2026 the announced 2027 civilian raise is 0%, base and locality both frozen. The FAIR Act's 4.1% is still only a bill.

What does the 4.1% FAIR Act proposal include?

The FAIR Act proposes a 3.1% across-the-board increase under 5 U.S.C. 5303 and a 1.0% locality adjustment for calendar year 2027.

When will final 2027 federal pay numbers be known?

The statutory deadline was before September 1, and the President met it on August 26, 2026. Final schedules come in a December executive order for January implementation.

How should I estimate my 2027 salary right now?

Plan on 0%. That is the transmitted plan and it takes effect automatically unless Congress enacts a different percentage. Treat the FAIR Act's 4.1% as the upside case only if it is enacted, on its own or carried in a funding law. Run your grade, step, and locality through the GS Pay Calculator to see what each scenario is worth.

Could the final 2027 raise be 0%?

Yes, and it is the default. Congress would need to enact a law setting a different percentage, either a standalone pay law like the FAIR Act or a provision in a funding law. That is how the 2019 freeze was undone: Public Law 116-6 required an adjustment and Executive Order 13866 delivered 1.9% retroactive to January.

Has there ever been a 0% federal pay raise?

Yes. Federal employees received 0% raises in 2011 and 2012 under a pay freeze ordered by President Obama during the federal deficit reduction push. Pay was also frozen in 2013. That three-year stretch remains the longest modern pay freeze for civilian federal workers.

What is the difference between the civilian and military pay proposals in Trump's FY2027 budget?

The same August 26 letter sets 0% for civilians and tiered military raises: 7.0% for E1 to E5, 6.0% for E6 to O3, and 5.0% for O4 and above, with a separate 3.6% for uniformed members outside the Armed Forces. Federal law enforcement on special rate tables gets 3.8% through OPM's special-rate authority.

Do step increases still happen during a pay freeze?

Yes. Within-grade increases (WGIs) are based on time-in-step and performance, not the annual pay order. If you are eligible for a step increase, you still receive it even if the general pay adjustment is 0%. However, locality pay adjustments may also be frozen depending on how the pay order is structured, that happened during the 2011-2013 freeze.

What does a 0% raise mean for my FERS pension?

Your FERS annuity is based on your high-3 average salary, the average of your three highest consecutive years of pay. A 0% raise in 2027 means your salary does not grow that year, which drags down your high-3 if that year falls within your high-3 window. The closer you are to retirement, the more a pay freeze affects your pension calculation.

Sources