GAO: Probationary Feds Hit Hardest in 2025 Separations

Last Updated: June 17, 2026 Reading Time: 8 min

The government now has the numbers. A GAO report released June 9, 2026 (GAO-26-108557) is the first official accounting of how 2025's workforce reduction hit probationary federal employees, and the data confirms what many feds suspected: probationary employee separations ran higher than for tenured staff, reaching 47% at TSA. Here is what the report shows, what the courts have ruled, and what you should do if you are still in your probationary period.

Key Takeaways

• Across 11 health and safety agencies, probationary employees separated at a 19% rate versus 15% for all employees in 2025.
• The GAO's headline is that 78.6% of those separations were voluntary, but that figure leans heavily on the Deferred Resignation Program and excludes the hardest-hit agencies outside its scope.
• TSA topped the list at 47%, followed by USDA (42%), the Forest Service and NIH (40%), NOAA (38%), and CDC (36%).
• A September 2025 court ruling found the mass terminations unlawful; the government is appealing in the Ninth Circuit.
• Civil Service Rule XI (effective July 24, 2025) now requires your agency to actively certify your retention, or you are separated automatically. Most current probationers do not know this.

What the GAO Actually Found

GAO-26-108557 examined 11 federal agencies with health or safety missions, covering roughly 1.8 million employees and about 282,000 probationary workers at some point during 2025. Of those probationary employees, roughly 53,000 separated, a 19% rate. Tenured employees separated at 15%.

The report broke the 53,000 probationary separations into three buckets:

• 78.6% voluntary (resignations, retirements, and the Deferred Resignation Program)
• 17.8% involuntary (terminations and RIFs), about 9,400 forced separations
• 4.3% transfers to other agencies

The "mostly voluntary" framing has been used to downplay the 2025 reduction. It deserves three caveats. First, the Deferred Resignation Program offered continued pay through September 2025 in exchange for leaving, and some employees felt pressure to accept rather than freely choosing to go. Second, probationary workers still separated at a higher rate than tenured staff at nearly every agency studied. Third, the GAO's scope was limited to health and safety agencies, so it does not capture the full government-wide picture.

Probationary Separation Rates by Agency

The table below assembles the agency-level data from the GAO report and its coverage. This combined "probationary vs. all-employee" comparison has not been published by other outlets in this format.

Directly stated figures (USDA 42%/30%, Energy 34%/19%, TSA 47%, DoD 14%/14%, NPS 46%/15%) come from GAO-26-108557 as reported by FedSmith. Figures marked with a tilde are approximate, derived from the gaps the report described.

Two patterns stand out. TSA's 47% means nearly half of all probationary employees left an agency responsible for airport security screening. And the National Park Service ran in reverse: 46% of all NPS employees separated, but only 15% of its probationary staff did. The GAO offered no explanation, so we won't speculate, but it likely reflects senior staff taking early retirement and the DRP while seasonal probationers stayed. DoD posted the largest absolute number, roughly 20,000 probationary separations, but at the same rate as its overall workforce.

Why Probationary Employees Have Fewer Rights

Under 5 U.S.C. § 7511, probationary employees are excluded from the definition of "employee" entitled to full adverse-action protections. The probationary period is treated as a trial run where the agency has broad discretion. In practice that means:

• No 30-day advance notice requirement
• No formal opportunity to respond before removal
• No MSPB appeal on performance or conduct grounds

That is why the February 2025 terminations happened so fast. But "fewer rights" is not "no rights."

The Three Appeal Paths That Stay Open

If you are separated during probation, three channels remain available regardless of your tenure status.

1. Office of Special Counsel (whistleblower). If you were fired in retaliation for reporting waste, fraud, abuse, a legal violation, or a danger to public health or safety, file with the OSC at osc.gov. There is no strict statutory deadline, but file promptly. The OSC can ask the MSPB to issue a stay.

2. EEO discrimination complaint. Probationary employees keep full protection under Title VII, the ADEA, the Rehabilitation Act, and GINA. If your removal was based on race, sex, age, disability, religion, national origin, or prior EEO activity, you can file. You must contact your agency EEO counselor within 45 days of the action. This is a hard deadline, and missing it can bar your claim.

3. MSPB appeal for partisan or marital-status reasons. The MSPB has jurisdiction over a probationary removal only when it was based on partisan political affiliation or marital status (5 C.F.R. § 315.806). In 2025, many attorneys argued that template letters citing "performance" masked political motives, which is part of why the mass-termination litigation succeeded.

The Rule XI Trap Most Probationers Don't Know About

This is the part to act on today. Before Executive Order 14284, completing your probationary period automatically converted you to career status. You reached your anniversary and your tenure was confirmed.

Under Civil Service Rule XI, effective July 24, 2025, that no longer happens automatically. Your agency must affirmatively certify in writing, within 30 days of your probation end date, that your continued employment "advances the public interest." If the agency forgets, declines, or simply misses the window, you are separated automatically on the day before your anniversary, even if your performance is spotless.

What to do:

• Check your SF-50 in eOPF (eopf.opm.gov). Block 24 shows "2" for probationary, "1" for completed probation.
• Know your exact anniversary date. Competitive service is usually 1 year; excepted service is usually 2.
• As your anniversary approaches, confirm with HR that the Rule XI certification was issued. Do not assume it happened.

Where the Litigation Stands

In AFGE v. OPM, a federal judge ruled in September 2025 that OPM lacked the authority to direct agencies to fire probationary employees en masse, and that template letters falsely citing performance issues violated the Administrative Procedure Act. The permanent injunction covers six agencies: VA, Agriculture, Defense, Energy, Interior, and Treasury. The government appealed to the Ninth Circuit on September 16, 2025, and that appeal is pending as of June 2026. The injunction remains in effect during the appeal.

Separately, OPM published a proposed rule on December 30, 2025 (Federal Register 2025-23974) that would move probationary appeals from the MSPB to an OPM-internal process. As of this writing it is a proposed rule, not final law. Check the Federal Register for its current status before relying on it.

Estimate What You'd Be Owed

If you were separated through a formal RIF rather than a voluntary program, you may be entitled to severance pay. Run your numbers with the free Severance Pay Calculator before you accept or sign anything: calculate your severance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did the GAO say the 2025 federal probationary firings were legal?

No. The GAO report described what happened, how many employees separated and how, without ruling on legality. That was left to the courts. In September 2025, a federal judge ruled the mass terminations unlawful. The government is appealing that ruling in the Ninth Circuit as of June 2026.

Can I appeal if I'm fired during my probationary period in 2026?

Your appeal rights are narrow but real. You can file with the Office of Special Counsel if you reported waste, fraud, or wrongdoing. You can file an EEO complaint if the termination was based on a protected characteristic, but you must contact your agency EEO counselor within 45 days. You can appeal to the MSPB only if you were fired for partisan political reasons or marital status. Performance-based removals generally cannot be appealed.

How do I know when my probationary period ends?

Check your SF-50 in eOPF at eopf.opm.gov. Block 24 (Tenure) shows "2" if you are career-conditional/probationary and "1" if you have completed probation. Most competitive service positions have a 1-year probation; most excepted service positions have 2 years. Under Civil Service Rule XI, your agency must issue a written certification within 30 days of your anniversary, so confirm with HR.

What is Civil Service Rule XI and how does it affect me?

Civil Service Rule XI, created by Executive Order 14284 and effective July 24, 2025, changed how probation ends. Before, completing your probationary period automatically converted you to career status. Now your agency must proactively certify in writing, within 30 days of your anniversary, that your continued employment advances the public interest. If the agency fails to act, you are automatically separated the day before your anniversary.

Which agencies had the worst probationary separation rates in 2025?

Among the 11 health and safety agencies the GAO studied, TSA had the highest rate at 47 percent. USDA was next at 42 percent, followed by the Forest Service and NIH at 40 percent, NOAA at 38 percent, and CDC at 36 percent. The National Park Service was the anomaly, where 46 percent of all employees departed but only 15 percent of probationary employees did.

Related Resources

• Federal Probationary Period Guide 2026: How probation works, start to finish
• Federal Agency Cuts 2025-2026, Ranked: Which agencies lost the most staff
• RIF Competitive Area Narrowing: How RIF rules reach probationers
• Federal Whistleblower Rights: The OSC complaint path explained
• HHS Hiring 12K After Cutting 20K: The HHS, NIH, and FDA context

Sources

• GAO-26-108557: Federal Workforce report
• FedSmith coverage of the GAO report
• AFGE v. OPM docket (Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse)
• EEOC: Federal EEO complaint processing
• Civil Service Rule XI (eCFR Part 11)