Last Updated: September 11, 2026

UPDATE (August 29, 2026): The alternative pay plan letter arrived August 28, and it did not follow the historical script this post laid out. The letter proposes 0% for civilians, base and locality frozen at 2026 rates, with a 3.8% increase for federal law enforcement personnel, with OPM to determine which positions qualify. Our 1.0%-1.5% base case assumed the first-term pattern of a small EO-set raise; that did not repeat. What remains of the mechanics below is still live: Congress can override through the FSGG appropriations bill, and the December executive order sets the final rates.

Where it stands (September 11, 2026): the August 28 alternative pay plan proposes 0% for civilian employees in 2027, with base and locality rates frozen at 2026 levels and a 3.8% increase for federal law enforcement. Two things can still move the number: the FSGG appropriations bill this fall, and the December executive order that sets the final tables. We update this page when either lands. Looking for the projected 2027 pay tables with locality? See the GS Pay Scale 2027: Projected Tables and Raise Tracker.

The White House FY2027 budget (released April 3, 2026) proposes 0% for civilian federal employees and 7% for military, the widest gap proposed in modern history. The FAIR Act introduced in February proposes 4.1% for civilians but has 19 House co-sponsors (18 Democrats, 1 Republican) and zero path to passage in a Republican-controlled Congress. The FEPCA statutory formula uses the private-industry wages and salaries ECI for the base quarter ending September 2025. BLS reported 3.6% growth, which would deliver a 3.1% base adjustment after subtracting 0.5 percentage point, but every president since Clinton has used the "alternative pay plan" override to deliver smaller raises. That's 31 unbroken years of FEPCA non-implementation. Before the letter, FedTools' base case was 1.0% to 1.5% base pay with locality unchanged; the August 28 plan set 0% instead. This is the complete process explainer (how the raise gets set), the 18-year historical pattern (the original-data table no other publisher has compiled), and the most likely 2027 outcome based on the actual political and statutory mechanics.

How the 2027 Raise Actually Gets Set

Step 1: FEPCA Formula (What Should Happen)

The Federal Employees Pay Comparability Act of 1990 (5 USC 5303) established an automatic formula:

Annual GS base raise = ECI (prior year private-sector wage growth) − 0.5 percentage points

For a January 2027 adjustment, 5 U.S.C. § 5303 uses the ECI base quarter ending September 2025, not the March 2026 reading. BLS reported that private-industry wages and salaries grew 3.6% over the 12 months ending September 2025. Applying FEPCA: 3.6% − 0.5% = 3.1% base.

The locality component is more complex. FEPCA targets closing the federal-private pay gap, currently 24.72% per Federal Salary Council data. Full locality implementation would cost approximately $24 billion in year one. That's why every president has overridden it.

Step 2: Presidential Alternative Pay Plan (What Actually Happens)

Under the same 5 USC 5303, the president may submit an "alternative pay plan" to Congress by late August of the preceding year. This replaces FEPCA entirely. Key 2027 dates:

Date Event
Late August 2026 President's alternative pay plan deadline
Fall 2026 Congressional appropriations markup season
December 2026 Final Executive Order signed
First pay period on/after January 1, 2027 New rates effective

Every president since Clinton has used this override to deliver smaller raises than FEPCA would require. 31 unbroken years. This is the rule, not the exception.

Step 3: Congressional Override Path

Congress can use appropriations legislation to mandate a specific raise, bypassing the alternative pay plan. Historically:

  • 2019: Trump proposed a freeze. Congress appropriated 1.9% via FSGG bill.
  • 2011-2013: Obama proposed and Congress cooperated with a 0% freeze.
  • 2026: White House said little; final EO at 1.0%; Congress did not intervene.

The 2027 reality: Republicans control both House and Senate. The House Appropriations Committee already omitted civilian pay from its FY2027 FSGG markup. A Hoyer amendment (3.1%) failed by four votes. The political math does not support a Congressional override.

The 18-Year Federal Pay Raise Chart (Original FedTools Data)

This is the table no other publisher has compiled. All figures verified against OPM, generalschedule.org, and contemporary news reporting.

Year FEPCA Output FAIR/Dem Proposal President's Proposal Enacted Locality Frozen?
2026 ~3.3% 4.3% 0% (Aug 2025 EO) 1.0% YES
2025 ~2.2% 7.4% 2.0% 2.0% No
2024 ~4.7% 8.7% 5.2% 5.2% No
2023 ~4.1% , 4.6% 4.6% No
2022 ~2.2% , 2.7% 2.7% No
2021 ~1.0% , 1.0% 1.0% No
2020 ~2.6% 3.6% 2.6% 2.6% No
2019 ~1.9% 3.6% 0% freeze 1.9% (Congress override) No
2018 ~1.9% , 1.9% 1.9% No
2017 ~1.0% , 1.0% 1.0% No
2016 ~1.0% , 1.0% 1.0% No
2015 ~1.0% , 1.0% 1.0% YES
2014 ~1.0% , 1.0% 1.0% YES
2013 0% , 0% 0% YES (3rd freeze year)
2012 0% , 0% 0% YES (2nd freeze year)
2011 0% , 0% 0% YES (1st freeze year)
2010 ~1.5% , 1.5% 1.5% No

What the Pattern Reveals

  1. A true 0% freeze is rare. Only 3 years in 18 (2011-2013, all under Obama with full Congressional cooperation).
  2. When the president proposes 0%, the result is usually a small raise, not zero. 2019 proves the pattern: Trump's freeze became 1.9% after Congressional override.
  3. 2026 is the closest precedent for 2027. Silent White House budget; final EO at 1.0%; locality frozen. This is the model Trump appears to be following.
  4. Republican-controlled Congress in 2019 was different from Republican-controlled Congress in 2027. In 2019, House Democrats had appropriations sway. In 2027, Republicans control both chambers.
  5. Locality percentages were held flat in 2026. By contrast, the 2025 adjustment included a 1.7% base increase plus locality increases averaging 0.3%, so 2025 was not a locality-freeze year.

The Four Scenarios, and Which One the Letter Picked

These probabilities were set in May, before the letter. The August 28 plan chose the path we rated least likely short of a Congressional override: a true 0% freeze. The scenario text stays as written so you can see what the pattern predicted and where it broke.

Base case (60% pre-letter): 1.0%-1.5% base pay, locality frozen. Did not happen

Mirrors the 2026 pattern. Silent budget, December EO, locality frozen. Federal employees see a small nominal raise that lags inflation.

Optimistic case (25% pre-letter): 2.0%-2.5% base, possible partial locality

Requires Trump to issue a slightly more generous alternative pay plan, possible if recruitment/retention concerns surface in summer 2026. Recent LEO 3.8% special rate (1% base + 2.8% special) shows OPM is willing to use special rates when justified.

Pessimistic case (10% pre-letter): 0% true freeze. This is what the letter proposes

The letter did this without Congress: under 5 USC 5303 an alternative pay plan replaces the FEPCA formula outright. Congress would now have to act to raise the number, not to permit the freeze. A 0% year was last seen in 2011-2013.

Disruption case (5% pre-letter): 4%+ raise

Requires Congressional override via appropriations rider. Would need bipartisan support that does not currently exist. Possible only if a major political shift occurs.

What 2027 Means by GS Grade (At Each Scenario)

Calculations use 2026 base pay (corrected to OPM 2026 official tables in our recent audit). Total pay assumes Rest of US locality (17.06%) for clarity.

Grade/Step 2026 Base At 0% (RUS) At 1% (RUS) At 2.5% (RUS) At 4.1% FAIR Act (RUS)
GS-7/5 $48,854 $57,189 $57,761 $58,619 $59,575
GS-9/5 $59,759 $69,953 $70,653 $71,701 $72,872
GS-11/5 $72,303 $84,634 $85,481 $86,752 $88,170
GS-12/5 $86,659 $101,438 $102,453 $103,977 $105,675
GS-13/5 $103,049 $120,629 $121,836 $123,646 $125,665
GS-14/5 $121,774 $142,549 $143,975 $146,114 $148,499
GS-15/5 $143,236 $167,673 $169,350 $171,866 $174,672

Annual difference between 0% freeze and 4.1% FAIR Act for a GS-13 Step 5 in RUS: $5,036. Over a 30-year career, compounded against 2.5% inflation, the cumulative real-pay-cut cost of a 0% freeze year approaches $50,000 per GS-13 employee.

What to Plan For

  1. Plan for 0% base, locality frozen. That is the letter's number until Congress or the December order says otherwise.
  2. Do not plan financial decisions around FAIR Act numbers. It has zero path.
  3. The alternative pay plan landed August 28 with 0% for civilians and 3.8% for law enforcement; watch OPM for which positions qualify for the 3.8%.
  4. Watch September-November 2026 for FSGG appropriations. Congress could (theoretically) override.
  5. December 2026 EO is the final word. Until then, every projection is provisional.
  6. High-3 planners: if you're nearing retirement and want to lock in higher pay, complete time-in-grade in 2026 (current pay) rather than 2027 (likely lower nominal raise).

Calculate Your 2027 Pay Under Each Scenario

Use the GS Pay Calculator 2026 to model multiple scenarios. Apply each rate (0%, 1%, 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.1%) to your current grade and step to see the dollar impact. The calculator was re-audited 2026-05-10 against OPM official tables (36 locality percentage corrections shipped).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the projected 2027 federal pay raise?

Settled on August 28, 2026: the alternative pay plan letter freezes civilian base pay and locality pay at 2026 rates (0%), with a 3.8% carve-out for federal law enforcement, pending the December executive order. Before the letter, FedTools' base case had been 1.0% to 1.5% base pay with locality frozen. The FAIR Act asked 4.1%; the FEPCA formula would have delivered about 3.1%.

Will federal employees get a raise in 2027?

No, not for most: the August 28 letter sets 0% for civilians (base and locality frozen at 2026 rates) and 3.8% for law enforcement. Congress could override in appropriations as it did in 2019, but the House FY2027 bill already carries 0%. A true freeze has happened only three times since 2010 (2011-2013); 2027 would be the fourth.

What is the FAIR Act and will it pass?

H.R. 7480, proposes 4.1% total. 19 co-sponsors, no Republican support. Zero path in current Congress.

When will we know the actual 2027 raise?

Three milestones: late August 2026 (alternative pay plan), fall 2026 (appropriations), December 2026 (final EO).

Will locality pay be frozen again?

Most likely yes. Frozen in 2026 already; precedent established.

How much will I lose at 0%?

About 2.5% real pay cut against typical inflation. For GS-13/5 in DC, that's ~$3,450/yr.

Sources