Last Updated: August 12, 2026 Reading Time: 8 min
Federal pay raise history is easy to find as a list of percentages and nearly impossible to find as an answer to the question that matters: what has all of it done to your buying power? Here is every GS raise since 2008 in one table, and below it, the computed real-value ledger no official source publishes.
Every GS Raise, 2008 to 2026
Across-the-board base increases per OPM's annual pay adjustments. Total-with-locality averages shown for recent years where OPM reported them.
| Year | Across-the-board | Avg. with locality | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 2.5% | 3.5% | |
| 2009 | 2.9% | 3.9% | |
| 2010 | 1.5% | 2.0% | |
| 2011 | 0% | 0% | Freeze year 1 |
| 2012 | 0% | 0% | Freeze year 2 |
| 2013 | 0% | 0% | Freeze year 3 |
| 2014 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Locality still frozen |
| 2015 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Locality still frozen |
| 2016 | 1.0% | 1.3% | |
| 2017 | 1.0% | 2.1% | |
| 2018 | 1.4% | 1.9% | |
| 2019 | 1.4% | 1.9% | Enacted by Congress after a proposed freeze |
| 2020 | 2.6% | 3.1% | |
| 2021 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Locality frozen |
| 2022 | 2.2% | 2.7% | |
| 2023 | 4.1% | 4.6% | |
| 2024 | 4.7% | 5.2% | Largest since the 1970s |
| 2025 | 1.7% | 2.0% | |
| 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0% | Locality frozen at 2025 levels |
| 2027 | proposed 0% | proposed 0% | Letter due August 31, 2026 |
Locality averages for 2008–2019 are OPM-reported program averages; your own locality's adjustment varied. The 2020–2026 figures match the OPM Pay Agent reports.
The Number Nobody Publishes: Real Purchasing Power
Percentages hide the story. To see it, index a GS salary at 100 in December 2019, apply each January raise, and deflate by that calendar year's CPI-U inflation. This is our own computation from OPM raise data and BLS CPI-U (series CUUR0000SA0, December over December):
| Year | Raise (avg.) | CPI-U inflation | Real-pay index (Dec 2019 = 100) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.1% | 1.4% | 101.7 |
| 2021 | 1.0% | 7.0% | 96.0 |
| 2022 | 2.7% | 6.5% | 92.6 |
| 2023 | 4.6% | 3.4% | 93.7 |
| 2024 | 5.2% | 2.9% | 95.8 |
| 2025 | 2.0% | 2.7% | 95.1 |
| 2026 | 1.0% | ~3% (est., year in progress) | ~93 (est.) |
Read the bottom line: after six raises and one partial year, a GS salary carries roughly 94 cents of 2019 buying power per dollar. The two big raises of 2023 and 2024 clawed back about a third of the hole that 2021 and 2022 dug, and the 1.0% and proposed 0% years are widening it again.
In dollars, a 6.2% real loss means:
- GS-9 Step 5 ($59,759): about $3,700 a year of lost buying power
- GS-11 Step 5 ($72,303): about $4,500
- GS-13 Step 5 ($103,049): about $6,400
- GS-15 Step 5 ($143,236): about $8,900
That is roughly the value of a full within-grade step increase, erased and never restored. A freeze year doesn't just skip a raise; it locks the loss into the base that every future raise, promotion, and High-3 average compounds from.
How the Raise Actually Gets Decided
The pattern in the table isn't random. A 1990 statute, FEPCA, sets a default: the Employment Cost Index minus half a point. Then reality intervenes, in a fixed order:
- The President's alternative pay plan letter (due August 31 each year) overrides the formula. This is the norm, not the exception.
- Congress can override the President in appropriations, as it did for 2019, turning a proposed freeze into 1.9%.
- If neither acts, the formula operates. In thirty-five years, it essentially never has.
The formula has been beaten (2023, 2024), undercut (2021, 2025, 2026), and ignored through freezes. Whatever 2027 brings, it will come from the letter or Congress, not the statute. We track the 2027 decision live in the GS Pay Scale 2027 Tracker.
What This History Says About 2027
Three patterns worth carrying into the fall:
- Freezes come in clusters and follow proposals. The 2011-2013 freeze started as a one-year proposal. The 2026 near-freeze (1.0%, locality frozen) preceded a proposed 0% for 2027.
- Congress rescues raises rarely, but it has happened. The 2019 override is the proof of concept, and it required both chambers to care.
- Catch-up raises exist but under-deliver. Even 4.6% and 5.2% back to back did not close a two-year inflation gap. A frozen 2027 against ~3% inflation would push the real-pay index toward 90, a full decade of raises effectively cancelled.
See What Your Current Salary Really Is
Every scenario starts from your actual 2026 number. Use our free GS Pay Calculator to get your exact base and locality pay by grade, step, and city. Try it now →
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the largest recent federal pay raise?
January 2024: 4.7% across the board, 5.2% average with locality, the largest since the late 1970s.
How many times has federal pay been frozen?
Base pay: 2011, 2012, and 2013. Locality percentages have been frozen more often, including 2014-2015, 2021, and 2026. A 2027 freeze is proposed but not final.
Has federal pay kept up with inflation?
Not since 2020. Raises compounded to about 20.8% while prices rose about 28.7%, a real loss of roughly 6 points concentrated in 2021-2022.
Who decides the annual raise?
The President, through the alternative pay plan letter due August 31, unless Congress sets a different figure in appropriations. The statutory FEPCA formula is the default that almost never operates.
Where does 2027 stand?
A freeze is proposed, the letter hasn't been submitted, and no congressional override is moving. The tracker linked above updates as each fact lands.
Related Resources
- GS Pay Scale 2027: Projected Tables and Raise Tracker: The live decision watch with scenario tables.
- Federal Pay Cut 2026: The Real-Wage Math: This year's purchasing-power squeeze in detail.
- 2027 Federal Pay Freeze: Impact by GS Grade: What a freeze costs at each grade.
- GS Pay Calculator: Your exact 2026 rate, base plus locality.
Sources: OPM annual pay adjustment memos and salary tables (opm.gov) · CRS Report R47033, Federal Pay: GS Pay Adjustment Process · BLS CPI-U series CUUR0000SA0 · BLS Employment Cost Index · FedTools computation of the real-pay index (methodology above)