Is the 4-to-1 rule final?

The ratio itself is already in effect through a July 7, 2025 presidential memorandum and Executive Order 14356. What's new is OPM's proposed rule (Federal Register 2026-13441, published July 2, 2026) that would codify the Annual Staffing Plan machinery into regulation at 5 CFR part 250. That rule is proposed, not final, and public comments close August 3, 2026.

Which positions are exempt from the 4-to-1 ratio?

Three categories: national security positions, immigration enforcement positions, and public safety positions. These are position-level exemptions, not agency-level, so a national-security-flavored agency doesn't get a blanket pass. The OPM Director can also grant case-by-case exceptions on written request.

How does an agency escape the 4-to-1 ratio?

By submitting an Annual Staffing Plan to OMB and OPM and getting hiring authorities approved through it. Until an agency has a submitted plan, it operates under the default 4-to-1 constraint. The FY2026 plans were due December 1, 2025; under the proposed rule, future plans are prepared at the start of each fiscal year with quarterly progress reviews.

What does this mean if my old office never backfilled?

The ratio is the mechanism behind the replacement gap: departures don't translate into vacancies you can expect to be refilled, and analytical occupations have seen replacement rates of roughly 1% to 5%. If your role sits in an exempt category you have structural protection others don't. If not, the staffing plan process, not your org chart, decides whether the position comes back.

OPM's 4-to-1 Hiring Rule: How Agencies Get Out From Under It

Q: What is the federal 4-to-1 hiring ratio?

Agencies may hire no more than one new employee for every four employees who depart, counting only departures in the current fiscal year. An agency with 100 FY2026 departures can hire up to 25 people in FY2026. Prior-year losses don't count toward hiring authority.

Q: What does the proposed rule replace?

It would swap Human Capital Operating Plans for Annual Staffing Plans, Human Capital Reviews for Annual Staffing Reviews, and the HRStat quarterly process for Quarterly Staffing Plan Performance Reviews. It also strengthens the agency CHCO's control over human capital functions and trims the required annual employee survey questions.

Last Updated: July 22, 2026 Reading Time: 8 min

Federal hiring in 2026 runs on a simple, punishing piece of arithmetic: four people out, one person in. The rule has governed since mid-2025 through a presidential memorandum, and on July 2, 2026 OPM published the proposed regulation (Federal Register 2026-13441) that would make its machinery permanent. Public comments are open until August 3, 2026. Here is how the ratio actually computes, who's exempt from it, and the one mechanism that lets an agency hire above it.

The math is 4 departures per 1 hire, current fiscal year only. 100 FY2026 departures = authority for 25 FY2026 hires. Last year's losses buy nothing this year.
The ratio is already in effect (July 7, 2025 presidential memo, formalized by Executive Order 14356). The July 2026 Federal Register document is the proposed rule codifying the plan machinery, and comments close August 3, 2026.
Exemptions are position-level, not agency-level: national security, immigration enforcement, and public safety positions, plus case-by-case OPM Director exceptions.
The escape valve is the Annual Staffing Plan: agencies that submit plans to OMB and OPM can get hiring authorities approved above the ratio. No plan, no relief.
This is the policy mechanism behind the occupation replacement gap: 1% to 5% replacement rates in analytical series are the ratio doing exactly what it was built to do.

The ratio, computed precisely

The OPM guidance implementing Executive Order 14356 phrases it as agencies hiring "no more than one employee for every four employees that depart." Three details determine what that means in practice:

Direction: four separations buy one hire, not the reverse.
Clock: only departures in the current fiscal year count. An agency that shed 2,000 people in FY2025 starts FY2026 at zero hiring credit.
Scope: all executive departments and agencies, regardless of funding source.

The current-year rule is the sleeper detail. Agencies that took the deepest cuts during the deferred-resignation wave got no durable hiring credit for it; the counter reset with the fiscal year. That's why "we lost half the office last year" and "we can't post the vacancy" are both true at the same agency.

What the July 2026 proposed rule actually does

The ratio itself doesn't come from the new rule. The chain runs: July 7, 2025 presidential memorandum (the ratio), then Executive Order 14356 in October 2025 (the staffing-plan requirement), and now Federal Register 2026-13441, which proposes amending 5 CFR part 250 to make the machinery regulatory rather than memo-based:

Today	Under the proposed rule
Human Capital Operating Plans (HCOPs)	Annual Staffing Plans (ASPs)
Human Capital Reviews (HCRs)	Annual Staffing Reviews (ASRs)
HRStat quarterly reviews	Quarterly Staffing Plan Performance Reviews

The rule also strengthens the agency CHCO's visibility and control over human capital functions and cuts down the required annual employee survey questions. Docket OPM-2026-0368; comments close August 3, 2026. Until finalized, all of this remains proposed, but the underlying ratio binds regardless because it rides on the EO chain, not on this rule.

A same-day companion rule (FR 2026-13445, the 30-day PIP and removal-as-default proposal) is a separate action often conflated with this one. Different rule, different mechanics.

Who's exempt, and how exemptions really work

Three position categories sit outside the ratio: national security, immigration enforcement, and public safety. The exemption attaches to the position, not the agency. DHS still counts its administrative and policy hires against the ratio; a police position at an otherwise-covered agency doesn't count against it.

Two other carve-outs: the OPM Director can grant exceptions on written request, and Intelligence Community agencies are exempt from the staffing-plan submission requirement (whether the ratio itself binds the IC is genuinely ambiguous in the published guidance, a gap the final rule may or may not close).

For employees, the practical reading: if your occupation falls in an exempt category, your agency can backfill around you without burning ratio credit, which is structural protection. If you're in an analytical, administrative, or policy series, the replacement-gap data shows what the ratio has already done to those pipelines.

The staffing plan is the only way out

Here's the mechanism that matters for anyone waiting on a vacancy: an agency stuck at 4-to-1 stays stuck until it submits an Annual Staffing Plan to OMB and OPM and gets hiring authorities approved through it. The plan is the escape valve. FY2026 plans were due December 1, 2025; under the proposed rule, future plans get prepared at the start of each fiscal year with quarterly performance reviews against them.

Notice what this centralizes. Hiring authority stops being an org-chart decision and becomes a document negotiated with OMB and OPM, aligned to the President's Management Agenda. The published guidance names no penalty for an agency that simply doesn't submit, because the penalty is built in: no plan means the default ratio keeps binding.

What to do with this if you're inside

Waiting on a promotion or lateral posting: ask whether the position sits in an exempt category and whether your agency's staffing plan was approved. Those two facts predict the posting better than any manager's assurance.
Weighing an exit: if your role isn't exempt and your agency is ratio-bound, the position may not survive your departure, which changes the leave-or-stay math. The Severance Pay Calculator prices the involuntary path, and the FERS Retirement Calculator prices the retirement-eligible one.
Commenting: the window on FR 2026-13441 is open until August 3, 2026 at regulations.gov, docket OPM-2026-0368. Career feds can comment as private citizens on personal time.

The workforce this rule is shaping is already the smallest since the 1960s, and agency exposure varies widely; the agency RIF risk ranking maps which ones are most constrained.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the federal 4-to-1 hiring ratio?

One new hire per four departures, counting current-fiscal-year departures only. 100 FY2026 departures = up to 25 FY2026 hires.

Is the rule final?

The ratio already binds via the July 2025 presidential memo and EO 14356. The July 2026 Federal Register document codifying the plan machinery is proposed, with comments open until August 3, 2026.

Which positions are exempt?

National security, immigration enforcement, and public safety positions, position by position, plus OPM Director case-by-case exceptions.

How does an agency hire above the ratio?

By getting an Annual Staffing Plan approved through OMB and OPM. Without a submitted plan, the default ratio binds.

What does the proposed rule replace?

HCOPs become Annual Staffing Plans, Human Capital Reviews become Annual Staffing Reviews, and HRStat becomes Quarterly Staffing Plan Performance Reviews, with a stronger CHCO role.

What does this mean for my never-backfilled office?

Unless the positions are exempt, refills depend on the staffing-plan process, not local management. The 1% to 5% replacement rates in analytical occupations are this mechanism working as designed.

The Federal Occupation Replacement Gap: The outcomes data this rule produced, occupation by occupation
Agency RIF Risk Ranking 2026: Which agencies are most exposed
Federal Workforce at Its Lowest Since the 1960s: The headcount context
Severance Pay Calculator: Price the involuntary-exit scenario
FERS Retirement Calculator: Price the retirement-eligible exit

Sources: Federal Register 2026-13441, OPM CHCO guidance on Executive Order 14356, Federal News Network on the Annual Staffing Plans rule.