State of Federal Retirement Readiness 2026: 50 Data Points
Median FERS TSP balance is ~$50K while the average is $217K. OPM backlog hit 65,237. Full data report on federal retirement readiness with sourced stats.
Need a professional headshot? Pro headshots AI-generated in 60 seconds
The median FERS TSP balance is approximately $50,000, even as the headline average sits at $217,291. More than 60% of federal TSP participants have less than $50,000 saved. At the same time, a record 194,722 TSP accounts held $1 million or more as of January 2026. Federal retirement readiness is a barbell distribution, and 2026 is the year the gap shows up clearly in the data.
This is the FedTools State of Federal Retirement Readiness 2026 data report. It aggregates every major 2026 statistic on TSP balances, FERS eligibility, OPM processing capacity, and federal retiree health costs, with every number sourced and every FedTools calculation labeled.
Key Takeaways
- TSP plan scale: $1.073 trillion in assets, 7.28 million participants, 194,722 millionaires (record). (FRTIB, December 2025)
- Median vs. average gap: Median FERS TSP balance ~$50,000; average $217,291. A 4:1 ratio that the headline average obscures.
- OPM retirement backlog hit 65,237 in February 2026 (record), up 232% year-over-year from March 2025. Declined to 55,681 in March 2026.
- Retirement surge: 151,068 applications filed in calendar year 2025 (+59% vs. prior baseline).
- FERS Supplement at risk: House reconciliation bill would eliminate the $18,000/year supplement starting January 1, 2028. ~77,000 current recipients; ~$54,000 lifetime loss per affected retiree.
- FEHB premiums rose 12.3% for 2026, the largest hike in four years. Retirees pay post-tax, compounding the impact.
- 30-35% of FERS participants are on track to replace 75% of pre-retirement income at age 62 (FedTools 2026 analysis).
- 2026 FERS COLA is 2.0% vs. 2.8% for CSRS/SS, the structural "diet COLA" showing up again.
Top 10 Federal Retirement Readiness Statistics 2026
- TSP held $1.073 trillion in assets as of December 2025, making it one of the world's largest defined-contribution retirement pools. (FRTIB / DailyFED, March 2026)
- 194,722 TSP millionaires as of January 2026, up 23% year-over-year. Average of 27.8 to 28.6 years of participation per millionaire. Largest single account: $9.96 million. (FedSmith)
- The median FERS TSP balance is roughly $50,000 against an average of $217,291. A 4:1 gap. (FRTIB / DailyFED)
- The OPM retirement backlog hit 65,237 in February 2026, a record. That is 3.9x the March 2025 level of 16,794. Driven by 317,000+ federal employees who left government in 2025. (FedSmith, April 2026)
- Average monthly FERS annuity: $2,126. Average CSRS annuity: $5,447. The $3,321/month gap reflects the fundamentally different design of the two systems. (OPM FY2022 data; GovExec)
- Over 28% of the 2.1 million full-time permanent federal workforce is age 55 or older, setting up a multi-year retirement wave. (USAFacts citing OPM 2024 data)
- FEHB premiums rose 12.3% on average for 2026, the fastest increase in at least four years. Retirees pay post-tax. (Checkbook.org / NARFE, October 2025)
- TSP saw a $19 billion net outflow in 2025. Contributions: $55.32 billion. Withdrawals: $74.33 billion. First structural signal that the plan is in net-distribution mode. (FRTIB / DailyFED)
- Average FERS retiree separation age: 61.9 years with 23.6 years of service. The typical retiree leaves before Medicare eligibility at 65, spending an average 3.1 years paying FEHB premiums post-tax before Medicare coordinates. (OPM FY2022; GovExec)
- The FERS annuity supplement averages $18,000/year for ~77,000 recipients, but House reconciliation legislation (May 2025) proposes eliminating it effective January 1, 2028, for non-mandatory retirees. Per-person lifetime loss: ~$54,000. (CBO; GovExec)
Methodology
This report aggregates federal retirement data from primary sources (FRTIB, OPM, CBO, SSA, BLS, IRS) and research institutions (NARFE, Vanguard). Three ground rules:
- Every statistic has a source URL or document reference.
- FedTools-original calculations are labeled. The replacement-rate scenarios at 20/30/40 years of service, the readiness assessment methodology, and the sick-leave dollar-value tables are tagged as "FedTools 2026 analysis" with assumptions shown.
- Data gaps are flagged rather than filled. Five categories of data are documented as publicly unavailable (see Data Limitations below). Where possible, we report derived or proxy figures and label them as estimates.
Data limitations. Five public-data gaps are acknowledged:
- FRTIB does not publish a clean age-bracket mean/median table. Age-bracket figures are FedTools-derived estimates from FRTIB participant data.
- OPM does not publish aggregate survivor-benefit election rates (full / partial / none). We report the median survivor annuity dollar amount instead.
- OPM does not publish an average "sick leave hours at retirement" figure. We publish dollar-value tables at specific hour thresholds.
- FRTIB does not publish the distribution of withdrawal elections at separation. We report the $19B net outflow signal instead.
- The most complete OPM annuitant data is FY2022. FY2024 and FY2025 annual reports were not yet published at research date.
TSP Balance Benchmarks 2026
Plan scale (December 2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total TSP assets | $1.073 trillion |
| Total participants (all types) | 7.28 million |
| FERS participant accounts | 4,142,692 |
| Average FERS TSP balance | $217,291 |
| Overall average balance (all types incl. military/CSRS) | $134,633 (June 2025) |
| Median FERS TSP balance (estimated) | ~$50,000 |
| FERS participants contributing 5%+ (capturing full match) | 95.6% |
| FY2025 total contributions | $55.32 billion |
| FY2025 total withdrawals | $74.33 billion |
| FY2025 net cash flow | -$19 billion |
| FERS participants with any Roth balance | 1,195,101 (~1 in 3) |
| Average Roth TSP balance | $38,718 |
Source: DailyFED, March 2026; FRTIB Participant Activity Reports.
Balance distribution by tier (March 2025)
| Balance Range | Participant Count | Avg. Years Contributing |
|---|---|---|
| Under $50,000 | 4,322,634 | 6.03 years |
| $50,000 to $249,999 | 1,804,461 | 14.64 years |
| $250,000 to $499,999 | 588,795 | 20.33 years |
| $500,000 to $749,999 | 241,460 | 23.27 years |
| $750,000 to $999,999 | 118,681 | 25.32 years |
| $1,000,000+ | 146,910 | 28.62 years |
Source: FedSmith, November 2025, citing March 2025 FRTIB data.
Key insight: 60.6% of all TSP participants (4.32 million of 7.13 million) have under $50,000 saved. Only 2.1% have reached $1 million.
TSP millionaire trajectory (2020-2025)
| Date | TSP Millionaires | Period Change |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | 27,212 | — |
| December 2020 | 75,420 | +177% |
| December 2021 | 112,880 | +50% |
| June 2022 | 72,241 | -36% (market pullback) |
| December 2022 | 76,889 | +6% |
| December 2023 | 116,827 | +52% |
| December 2024 | 157,760 | +35% |
| June 2025 | 171,023 | +16% |
| December 2025 | 194,722 | +2.6% (record) |
Source: FedSmith, January 2026.
TSP balance by age (estimated)
FRTIB does not publish a clean public table of mean or median TSP balance by age bracket. The figures below represent FedTools estimates derived from FRTIB participant data and third-party federal-retirement research citing FRTIB.
| Age Bracket | Estimated Average | Estimated Median | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30 | ~$15,000 to $25,000 | ~$8,000 to $12,000 | Low (derived) |
| 30 to 39 | ~$60,000 to $90,000 | ~$30,000 to $50,000 | Moderate |
| 40 to 49 | ~$168,646 | ~$80,000 to $90,000 | FRTIB 2025 data |
| 50 to 59 | ~$244,000 to $271,000 | ~$120,000 to $140,000 | Moderate-high |
| 60 to 64 | ~$272,000 to $358,000 | ~$140,000 to $180,000 | Moderate-high |
| 65+ | ~$272,588 | ~$140,000+ | Moderate-high |
Source: FedSmith, November 2025; FRTIB 2024 Annual Report; Federal Pension Advisors. All age-bracket figures labeled as FedTools 2026 estimates derived from FRTIB participant data.
FedTools 2026 analysis: Federal employees ages 55-64 hold an estimated median TSP balance 40-55% higher than comparable private-sector 401(k) participants (Vanguard 2024 median for that cohort: $87,571 to $95,642). The federal advantage comes from two structural features: mandatory 5% contributions from day one of FERS coverage, and a 5% agency match that creates a built-in 10% savings rate floor for anyone who opts in.
FERS Eligibility: Who Can Retire Right Now
| Eligibility Path | Age | Service | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full (MRA + 30) | 55 to 57 (MRA) | 30+ years | No penalty; MRA depends on birth year |
| Reduced (MRA + 10) | 55 to 57 (MRA) | 10 to 29 years | 5%/yr reduction under age 62; no FEHB until pension commences |
| Age 60 | 60 | 20+ years | No reduction; no FERS Supplement |
| Age 62 | 62 | 5+ years | 1% formula (1.1% with 20+ years) |
| Early/VERA | 50 | 20+ years, or any age with 25+ years | Agency must offer; same calculation |
Source: OPM FERS Eligibility.
MRA by Birth Year
| Birth Year | MRA |
|---|---|
| Before 1948 | 55 |
| 1948 to 1952 | 55 + 2 months per year |
| 1953 to 1964 | 56 |
| 1965 to 1969 | 56 + 2 months per year |
| 1970 or later | 57 |
Workers turning 57 in 2026 were born in 1969; most current near-retirees (born 1953 to 1969) face MRAs of 56 to 57.
Age structure of the federal workforce
| Age Group | Share | Approximate Count (2.1M base) |
|---|---|---|
| Under 30 | 7.8% | ~163,800 |
| 30 to 39 | ~25-30% | ~525,000 to 630,000 |
| 40 to 49 | ~25-30% | ~525,000 to 630,000 |
| 50 to 59 | ~20% | ~420,000 |
| 60 to 64 | 14.8% (combined 60+) | ~310,800 |
| 65+ | ~5% | ~105,000 |
| 55+ (retirement zone) | 28%+ | ~588,000+ |
Source: USAFacts citing OPM 2024 data.
Federal employees in their 60s (14.8%) are nearly twice the share of those in their 20s (7.8%). That is a historic inversion since 2005 when the ratio was near parity. The demographic wave is covered in detail in our State of the Federal Workforce 2026 report.
Income Replacement: Can You Actually Retire?
FERS is a three-legged stool: Basic Annuity (pension) + Social Security + TSP. The combined target replacement rate is 70-80% of pre-retirement income.
Typical replacement contributions by stream
| Income Stream | Typical Replacement Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FERS Basic Annuity | 20-44% | 1.0% or 1.1% × High-3 × Years of Service |
| Social Security | 20-30% | FERS employees pay full Social Security payroll tax |
| TSP withdrawals (4% rule) | 10-20% | Depends on balance at retirement |
| Combined target | 70-80% | Industry benchmark |
Scenario A: 20-year retiree, age 60, High-3 $90,000
FedTools 2026 analysis:
| Component | Calculation | Annual Income |
|---|---|---|
| FERS Pension | 1.0% × $90,000 × 20 years | $18,000 ($1,500/mo) |
| FERS Supplement (age 60 path) | Not eligible | $0 |
| Social Security (at 67) | ~30% × $90,000 | $27,000 ($2,250/mo) |
| TSP (4% of $200,000 "mid" balance) | 4% × $200,000 | $8,000 ($667/mo) |
| Total | $53,000/yr (59% replacement) |
Verdict: Under the "mid" TSP scenario, a 20-year retiree falls short of the 70-80% benchmark by more than 10 points. Hitting 75% replacement would require a TSP balance of $350,000 to $400,000 at retirement. Assumptions: 4% withdrawal rate; Social Security claiming at 67.
Scenario B: 30-year retiree at MRA (57), High-3 $90,000
FedTools 2026 analysis:
| Component | Calculation | Annual Income |
|---|---|---|
| FERS Pension | 1.0% × $90,000 × 30 years | $27,000 ($2,250/mo) |
| FERS Supplement (bridge to 62) | ~$1,000 to $1,300/mo typical | $12,000 to $15,600 |
| Social Security (at 62, reduced) to (at 67, full) | ~$25,000 to $30,000 | $25,000 to $30,000 |
| TSP (4% of $350,000 mid-to-high) | 4% × $350,000 | $14,000 ($1,167/mo) |
| Total (supplement active, SS at 67) | ~$68,000 to $71,600/yr (76-80% replacement) |
Verdict: A 30-year retiree at MRA hits the 75-80% target if they have $300,000 to $400,000 in TSP and properly use the FERS Supplement bridge. This is achievable but not automatic. An estimated 40-50% of FERS employees reaching MRA with 30 years hold insufficient TSP balances.
Scenario C: 40-year retiree at 62+, High-3 $100,000
FedTools 2026 analysis:
| Component | Calculation | Annual Income |
|---|---|---|
| FERS Pension | 1.1% × $100,000 × 40 years | $44,000 ($3,667/mo) |
| Social Security (at 67) | ~$30,000 | $30,000 ($2,500/mo) |
| TSP (4% of $500,000) | 4% × $500,000 | $20,000 ($1,667/mo) |
| Total | $94,000/yr (94% replacement) |
Verdict: Long-tenure FERS retirees with full careers approach or exceed 100% replacement when TSP is adequate. The 1.1% pension multiplier for retirees age 62+ with 20+ years of service (vs. 1.0% otherwise) adds roughly 10% to pension value over a full career.
If you want to run your own numbers, our FERS retirement calculator models pension math including sick leave credit, and our TSP calculator projects balance growth and 4% withdrawal sustainability.
Sick Leave at Retirement: Small Dollars, Real Money
Under FERS (post-January 1, 2014), 100% of unused sick leave counts toward service credit at retirement. Conversion: 2,087 hours equals one full year of additional service credit. Each year adds 1.0% (1.1% for 62+/20 yr) of High-3 to annual pension.
| Sick Leave at Retirement | Service Credit | Pension Boost (High-3 = $90,000) |
|---|---|---|
| 520 hours (~5 years of accrual) | 3 months | +$225/yr (+$18.75/mo) |
| 1,044 hours (~10 years) | 6 months | +$450/yr (+$37.50/mo) |
| 2,087 hours (~20 years, full year credit) | 1 year | +$900/yr (+$75/mo) |
| 3,131 hours (maximum practical) | 1 year + 6 months | +$1,350/yr (+$112.50/mo) |
Source: OPM FERS Computation; OPM Sick Leave Fact Sheet. FedTools 2026 analysis for dollar values.
25-year present value (no COLA, 3% discount): A full year of sick leave credit (2,087 hours) is worth roughly $15,400 to $17,000 for a 62-year-old retiree at the $90,000 High-3 shown above.
OPM does not publish a public average for sick-leave hours at retirement, so we cannot report what the "typical" retiree has banked. A federal employee who never used sick leave would accumulate 2,080+ hours over 20 years of service at the statutory 104-hour annual accrual rate. Most employees use some; how much remains a public-data gap.
OPM Retirement Processing: A Record Backlog
Backlog timeline
| Month | Pending Claims | Note |
|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 16,794 | Baseline |
| October 2025 | ~34,700 | Surge begins |
| December 2025 | ~50,000 | First major wave |
| January 2026 | 54,000+ | Continued growth |
| February 2026 | 65,237 | Record (+232% YoY) |
| March 2026 | 55,681 | First monthly decline in 6 months |
Source: FedSmith / OPM, February to April 2026.
Processing times
| Period | Digital Claims | Paper Claims | Overall Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2024 (historical low) | — | — | 47 days |
| October 2024 | — | — | 62 days |
| February 2026 | ~34 days | ~95 days | 71 days |
| March 2026 | 39 days | 79 days | 60 days |
OPM's own 60-day target: digital processing at 39 days is below target; paper processing at 79 days exceeds it. Mixed performance.
Application volume
| Period | FY2025 | FY2026 (Oct-Mar) |
|---|---|---|
| New claims | ~95,000 (est.) | 121,833 (+133% YoY) |
| Full calendar year | 151,068 total | Pace tracking to exceed FY2025 |
Key driver: 317,000+ federal employees separated from service in 2025 (voluntary, VERA/VSIP, DRP, and RIF combined), the largest single-year separation surge in modern federal history.
If you are planning your own retirement date, our FERS retirement calculator models your annuity, and OPM Retirement Processing Times 2026 covers what to expect from the wait.
The FERS Supplement: $18K/Year at Legislative Risk
The FERS Special Retirement Supplement bridges the income gap between FERS retirement (as early as MRA) and age 62, when Social Security eligibility begins.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Estimated current recipients | 77,000+ |
| New recipients per year (CBO estimate) | ~21,000 |
| Average starting age | 59 years |
| Average duration | ~3 years (MRA to 62) |
| Average annual amount | |
| 2025 earnings limit (before reduction) | $23,400 |
| 2026 earnings limit (estimated) | $23,760 |
| Reduction formula | $1 for every $2 earned above limit |
Source: CBO 2025; OPM; GovExec.
Legislative risk
The House-passed reconciliation bill (May 2025) includes a provision to eliminate the FERS Supplement effective January 1, 2028 for non-mandatory retirees (i.e., everyone except law enforcement, ATC, and firefighters with mandatory retirement ages).
- Retirees who would lose it: Anyone retiring at MRA before 62 under a voluntary retirement.
- Impact per affected retiree: ~$18,000/year loss for up to 3 years = approximately $54,000 lifetime loss per person.
- Senate status: As of April 2026, the bill remained in the Senate. Outcome uncertain.
Sources: GovExec, May 2025; OPM FERS Supplement FAQ. For ongoing coverage, see our FERS Supplement Political Risk 2026 analysis.
Survivor Benefits: A Public-Data Gap
FERS retirees can elect full, partial, or no survivor benefit for their spouse at retirement.
| Election | Survivor Receives | Retiree Pension Reduction | Spousal Consent if Waived |
|---|---|---|---|
| Full (maximum) | 50% of unreduced annuity | 10% of unreduced annuity | Yes |
| Partial | 25% of unreduced annuity | 5% of unreduced annuity | Yes |
| None | $0 | $0 | Yes, written consent required |
Data gap: OPM does not publish aggregate percentages of retirees selecting each option. The published median FERS survivor annuity of $560/month suggests a meaningful share of retirees elect the partial or reduced option, but exact distribution data is unavailable.
Cost context: full election for a $27,000/yr pension (30-year career, $90,000 High-3)
- Full survivor benefit: 10% pension reduction = $2,700/year cost to retiree.
- Spouse receives $13,500/year if retiree dies first.
- Break-even: If spouse outlives retiree by more than 2 years, full election is financially positive for the household.
Source: OPM Survivor Benefits; OPM Retirement Statistics.
TSP in Distribution Mode: $19B Net Outflow in 2025
FRTIB does not publish a public breakdown of which withdrawal elections are most common at separation (lump sum, installment, annuity, rollover), so we rely on the aggregate net flow signal.
The 2025 number tells the story: contributions totaled $55.32 billion. Withdrawals totaled $74.33 billion. That is a $19 billion net outflow in a single year, and the first structural signal that TSP has transitioned from accumulation to distribution as the baby-boomer federal cohort retires.
2026 TSP rule changes (highlights)
| Change | 2026 Rule | Effective |
|---|---|---|
| Annual contribution limit | $24,500 (up from $23,500) | January 1, 2026 |
| Standard catch-up (age 50+) | $8,000 (up from $7,500) | January 1, 2026 |
| RMD start age | 73 (rises to 75 effective January 1, 2033 for those born 1960+) | SECURE 2.0 |
| TSP Roth in-plan conversion | Launched January 28, 2026 (pre-tax to Roth inside plan) | 2026 |
| Mandatory Roth catch-up | Participants earning >$150,000 prior year must make catch-up to Roth | 2026 |
Source: IRS Newsroom; TSP.gov SECURE 2.0 page.
For strategy, see Best TSP Allocation 2026 and TSP Milestone Benchmarks by Age.
FEHB in Retirement: The 3.1-Year Window
2026 FEHB premium statistics
| Metric | Self Only | Self + One | Self + Family |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 biweekly weighted-average total premium | $451.05 | $987.73 | $1,080.60 |
| 2026 max government contribution (biweekly) | $324.76 | $711.17 | $778.03 |
| 2026 average enrollee share (biweekly) | ~$126 | ~$277 | ~$303 |
| Monthly total premium equivalent | $977 | $2,140 | $2,341 |
Source: OPM FEHB Premiums 2026; NARFE, October 2025.
Year-over-year premium changes
| Year | Average Enrollee Share Increase |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 3.8% |
| 2023 to 2025 | Rising trend |
| 2026 | 12.3% |
The retiree-specific cost pattern
Retirees pay FEHB premiums post-tax (active employees pay pre-tax via payroll deduction). For a retiree in the 22% federal tax bracket, a $3,600/year FEHB premium costs the equivalent of $4,615/year pre-tax.
The government contribution formula does not change for retirees; the 72% cap applies equally. But the tax treatment shifts the real cost.
FedTools 2026 analysis: The average FERS retiree separates at age 61.9 (OPM FY2022 data). Medicare Part A is free at 65. That creates a 3.1-year FEHB-only window averaging $4,500 to $8,000/year in net premium costs (depending on plan selection). For a 30-year career FERS retiree at MRA, the coverage gap is even longer: roughly 5 years of FEHB-only before Medicare coordination begins at 65.
FEHB enrollment rule reminder: you must be enrolled in FEHB for the 5 years immediately before retirement to carry FEHB into retirement. Our FEHB calculator compares 2026 plans by total cost, and our FEHB + Medicare Part B guide covers the $2,400/year decision every federal retiree has to make.
FERS vs. CSRS: The Two Systems in the Same Year
| Metric | FERS | CSRS |
|---|---|---|
| Employee annuitants (FY2022) | 1,095,349 (44%) | 1,512,385 (56%) |
| Average monthly annuity | $2,126 | $5,447 |
| Average retirement age | 61.9 | 65.6 |
| Average service years at retirement | 23.6 | 39.2 |
| New retirees in FY2022 | 103,386 | 11,119 |
| Share of active workforce | 98.4% | 1.6% |
Source: OPM FY2022 data; GovExec, June 2024; CRS Report 98-972.
Trend: FERS is rapidly overtaking CSRS in the annuitant population. By roughly FY2030, FERS is projected to become the majority system in retirement payments as CSRS retirees age out of the system.
Are You On Track? FedTools 2026 Readiness Assessment
Defining "on track"
FedTools 2026 analysis: We define "on track" as a TSP balance that, combined with projected FERS pension and estimated Social Security, will replace 75% or more of pre-retirement income at age 62 using the 4% withdrawal rule.
Target TSP balance formula:
Pre-retirement income × (0.75 target) minus pension% minus SS% = remaining gap
Required TSP = remaining gap ÷ 0.04 (4% rule)
Worked example: GS-11 Step 5 / $75,000 with 25 years of service, targeting 75% at age 62:
- Pension: 1.0% × $75,000 × 25 = $18,750/yr (25% replacement)
- Social Security: ~$22,500/yr (30% replacement, estimated at age 62 reduced)
- Combined: 55% replacement. Gap: 20% = $15,000/yr needed from TSP.
- Required TSP balance: $15,000 ÷ 0.04 = $375,000.
Distribution overlay: who is on track
Using March 2025 FRTIB distribution data and the $75,000 scenario above as a proxy:
| Balance Range | Estimated "On Track" Status | % of FERS Participants |
|---|---|---|
| Under $50,000 | Significantly under-saved. Will need to work longer or accept lower replacement. | ~60% |
| $50,000 to $249,999 | Mixed. Adequate for short-tenure retirees; insufficient for MRA retirees. | ~25% |
| $250,000 to $374,999 | Borderline. May hit 75% with pension and full SS at 67; inadequate at 62. | ~5% |
| $375,000 to $749,999 | On track for most FERS scenarios with 20-30 years of service. | ~6% |
| $750,000+ | Well-positioned. Approaching or exceeding 90% replacement. | ~4% |
FedTools 2026 conclusion: Approximately 30-35% of FERS TSP participants are "on track" to replace 75% of income at age 62, assuming they also qualify for and claim full Social Security and hold their FERS pension. The remaining 65-70% face some combination of working longer, accepting reduced income, or relying on Social Security timing optimization.
Important caveat: This analysis does not credit the FERS pension's value as a guaranteed, partially inflation-adjusted income stream, which reduces TSP dependence compared to private-sector workers. FERS retirees need roughly 40-50% less TSP than equivalent private-sector workers for the same income replacement. But the structural gap remains: a median FERS TSP balance of $50,000 is insufficient for retirement by any standard.
Historical Trends (2020-2026)
TSP balance and asset growth
| Year | Total TSP Assets | FERS Avg Balance | TSP Millionaires |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~$750 billion | ~$130,000 | 27,212 (Mar) → 75,420 (Dec) |
| 2021 | $811 billion (Dec) | ~$181,000 | 112,880 |
| 2022 | $748 billion (Dec) | ~$157,000 | 76,889 |
| 2023 | ~$840 billion | ~$175,000 | 116,827 |
| 2024 | ~$950 billion | ~$194,000 to $198,000 | 157,760 |
| 2025 | $1.073 trillion (Dec) | $217,291 | 194,722 |
OPM retirement applications (annual volume)
| Period | Claims |
|---|---|
| FY2022 | ~114,505 |
| FY2023 | ~85,000 to 95,000 |
| FY2024 | ~95,000 to 100,000 |
| FY2025 | 151,068 (+59%) |
| FY2026 Oct-Mar | 121,833 (pace tracking above FY2025) |
FERS diet COLA in action
| Year | FERS COLA | CSRS/SS COLA | CPI-W Base |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7.7% | 8.7% | High inflation |
| 2024 | 2.2% | 3.2% | Moderating |
| 2025 | 2.0% | 2.5% | Continued moderation |
| 2026 | 2.0% | 2.8% | CPI-W Jul-Sep 2025: 2.8% |
FERS "diet COLA" rule: When CPI-W is between 2% and 3%, FERS retirees get only 2.0%. In 2026, that creates a 0.8 percentage point annual lag vs. CSRS and Social Security. Over 20 years, the cumulative lag compounds materially.
Source: NARFE, October 2025; GovExec, January 2026. For context on the push to close this gap, see Equal COLA Act: End the FERS Diet COLA.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average TSP balance for federal employees in 2026? The average FERS TSP balance is $217,291 (December 2025); the median is approximately $50,000. More than 60% of all TSP participants have less than $50,000 saved. (FRTIB / DailyFED)
How many TSP millionaires are there? A record 194,722 as of December 2025, up 23% year-over-year. Average of 27.8 to 28.6 years of participation. Largest single account: $9.96 million. (FRTIB via FedSmith)
How long does OPM take to process retirement claims in 2026? The backlog hit 65,237 in February 2026, up 232% year-over-year. Total wait from separation to first check is 6 to 9 months. OPM processing averages 34 to 39 days for digital filings, 79 to 95 days for paper. (FedSmith / OPM)
What percentage of FERS employees are on track to replace 75% of income at 62? FedTools 2026 estimates 30 to 35%, assuming full Social Security claim and FERS pension. The remaining 65 to 70% face working longer, accepting lower replacement, or optimizing Social Security timing.
Is the FERS Supplement at risk? Yes. House reconciliation (May 2025) would eliminate the ~$18,000/year supplement effective January 1, 2028 for non-mandatory retirees. ~$54,000 lifetime loss per affected person. Senate status uncertain.
How much did FEHB premiums rise for 2026? Enrollee-share premiums rose 12.3% on average, the steepest increase in four years. Retirees pay post-tax, making the real cost higher.
What is the average FERS pension in 2026? $2,126/month average vs. $5,447 for CSRS (OPM FY2022 data). Average FERS retiree separates at 61.9 with 23.6 years of service.
Cite This Report
Suggested citation (AP style):
FedTools Research Team. "State of Federal Retirement Readiness 2026." FedTools, 17 April 2026, https://www.fedtools.com/blog/state-of-federal-retirement-readiness-2026.
BibTeX:
@misc{fedtools2026retirement,
author = {FedTools Research Team},
title = {State of Federal Retirement Readiness 2026},
year = {2026},
month = {April},
url = {https://www.fedtools.com/blog/state-of-federal-retirement-readiness-2026}
}
Released under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Reuse any statistic with attribution to FedTools.
Sources
- FRTIB (Thrift Savings Plan): https://www.frtib.gov/
- TSP Annual Reports: https://www.frtib.gov/pdf/reading-room/congress/annual/TSP-Annual-Report_2024.pdf
- DailyFED, "Latest Federal Retirement Data: TSP Hits $1 Trillion," March 2026: https://dailyfed.com/2026/03/latest-federal-retirement-data-tsp-hits-1-trillion/
- FedSmith, "TSP Millionaires New Record Number," January 2026: https://www.fedsmith.com/2026/01/13/tsp-millionaires-new-record-number/
- FedSmith, "TSP Balance Milestones: Are You on Track?," November 2025: https://www.fedsmith.com/2025/11/18/tsp-balance-milestones-are-you-on-track-for-your-retirement-goals/
- OPM FERS Computation: https://www.opm.gov/retirement-center/fers-information/computation/
- OPM FERS Eligibility: https://www.opm.gov/retirement-center/fers-information/eligibility/
- OPM Retirement Processing Status: https://www.opm.gov/retirement-center/retirement-statistics/retirement-processing-status.pdf
- FedSmith, "OPM Retirement Backlog Falls 15% in March," April 2026: https://www.fedsmith.com/2026/04/08/opm-retirement-backlog-falls-15-percent-in-march/
- GovExec, "State of CSRS and FERS," June 2024: https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2024/06/state-civil-service-retirement-csrs-and-fers/397164/
- GovExec, "House Passes Reconciliation Bill Cuts Federal Employee Retirement Benefits," May 2025: https://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/2025/05/house-passes-reconciliation-bill-cuts-federal-employee-retirement-benefits/405523/
- OPM FERS Supplement FAQ: https://www.opm.gov/support/retirement/faq/fers-annuity-supplement-survey/
- Checkbook.org, "2026 FEHB Premiums": https://help.checkbook.org/article/456-a-closer-look-at-2026-fehb-premiums
- NARFE, "FEHB / PSHB Health Insurance Premiums Increase for 2026," October 2025: https://www.narfe.org/blog/2025/10/14/the-fehb-pshb-health-insurance-premiums-increase-for-the-2026-plan-year/
- OPM FEHB Premiums 2026: https://www.opm.gov/healthcare-insurance/healthcare/plan-information/premiums/
- IRS Newsroom, TSP Contribution Limits 2026: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/401k-limit-increases-to-24500-for-2026-ira-limit-increases-to-7500
- TSP.gov SECURE 2.0: https://www.tsp.gov/news-and-resources/secure-2-0-and-the-tsp/
- SSA Policy Paper, "Income Replacement Rates": https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v65n1/v65n1p17.html
- Vanguard, "How America Saves 2025": https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/how_america_saves_report_2025.pdf
- USAFacts, "How Old Is the Federal Workforce?": https://usafacts.org/articles/how-old-is-the-federal-workforce/
- NARFE, "2026 COLA Set: 2.8% CSRS/SS, 2% FERS," October 2025: https://www.narfe.org/blog/2025/10/27/2026-cola-set-2-8-for-csrs-and-social-security-2-for-fers/
Related FedTools data reports:
Related FedTools coverage:
- FERS Retirement Calculator
- TSP Calculator
- TSP Milestone Benchmarks by Age
- FERS Supplement Political Risk 2026
- First Year of Federal Retirement: Month-by-Month Guide
- FERS Retirement Guide (pillar)
Questions or corrections? Email research@fedtools.com. This report refreshes annually; the next State of Federal Retirement Readiness report is scheduled for April 2027.
Need a professional headshot? Pro headshots AI-generated in 60 seconds
Calculate Your 2026 Numbers
Estimate your federal pension and retirement income
Open FERS Retirement Calculator