Roth vs Traditional TSP
One number decides this: the retirement tax rate at which Roth starts beating traditional. This tool finds it from the 2026 IRS brackets, then shows the after-tax result both ways, because Roth costs more take-home pay today for the same contribution.
Reviewed by Jonathan D., 20-year federal employee · Formulas verified against IRS.gov and TSP.gov ·
| Measure | Traditional | Roth |
|---|---|---|
| Contributed per year | $5,000 | $3,900 |
| Take-home given up per year | $3,900 | $3,900 |
| Balance at retirement | $183,928 | $143,464 |
| After tax, yours to spend | $143,464 | $143,464 |
| Measure | Traditional | Roth |
|---|---|---|
| Contributed per year | $5,000 | $5,000 |
| Take-home given up per year | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| Balance at retirement | $183,928 | $183,928 |
| After tax, yours to spend | $143,464 | $183,928 |
| Modeled | Not modeled |
|---|---|
| 2026 federal income tax brackets and standard deduction for all four filing statuses, from IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32. | State and local income tax. Several states exempt some retirement income, which can move the break-even by several points. |
| The blended rate your traditional contribution actually saves, including the case where the contribution crosses a bracket line. | Itemized deductions, credits, the qualified business income deduction, and the extra standard deduction for age 65 and over. |
| The 2026 elective deferral limit of $24,500 plus the $8,000 and $11,250 catch-up limits, applied to your inputs. | The section 415(c) annual additions limit of $72,000, which caps employee plus agency dollars in a single year. |
| The SECURE 2.0 section 603 test: prior-year Social Security wages above $150,000 force your catch-up into Roth. | Combat-zone tax-exempt pay, where TSP requires Roth catch-up regardless of income. |
| Agency automatic 1 percent and matching dollars, always traditional, and the match you forfeit by contributing under 5 percent. | Mid-year pay raises, step increases, promotions, and any year when you change your contribution percent. |
| A single flat nominal return applied to both elections, with contributions landing at the end of each year. | Market sequence risk, fund expense differences, and inflation. All figures are nominal future dollars. |
| A single flat retirement marginal rate on the traditional balance. | Bracket changes over time, IRMAA surcharges, the taxable share of Social Security, and required minimum distributions forcing income you did not want. |
The only thing that decides this
Traditional TSP skips the tax now and pays it later. Roth TSP pays the tax now and skips it later. Hold your paycheck steady and the whole question collapses to a rate comparison: whichever rate is lower is the one you want to pay. The break-even figure at the top of this page is the rate your traditional deduction actually saves you in 2026. Expect a higher rate in retirement and Roth is the better bet. Expect a lower one and traditional is.
Notice what is missing from that: your return assumption and your years to retirement. Both scale the Roth side and the traditional side by the same factor, so they cancel. Change the return from 5 percent to 9 percent in the tool and watch the break-even rate hold still. A long horizon does not favor Roth on its own.
Why we show two framings
Contribute $5,000 traditional in the 22 percent bracket and your paycheck drops by $3,900, because the deduction hands $1,100 back. Contribute $5,000 Roth and your paycheck drops by the full $5,000. Those are not the same decision, so comparing them as if they were loads the answer toward Roth.
The same take-home panel keeps your paycheck fixed and shrinks the Roth contribution to match, which isolates the rate bet. The same dollars panel keeps the contribution fixed and shows what Roth really buys you: more sheltered money, at a real cost to this month's budget. If you are already contributing the full $24,500 limit, the second framing is the one that matters, because $24,500 of Roth money is worth more at retirement than $24,500 of traditional money and the limit will not let you make up the difference.
The match is not part of the decision
Agency money is always traditional. TSP puts it in one sentence: agency or service contributions always go into your traditional balance, regardless of your contribution choice. Your Roth contributions still earn every dollar of match. Since that is true under either election, it drops out of the comparison.
What does matter is whether you are capturing the match at all. Five percent of basic pay draws the full 4 percent match plus the 1 percent automatic contribution. Anything under 5 percent leaves money behind, and the tool prints the annual figure you are forfeiting. Fix that before you spend another minute on the Roth question. Our TSP Contribution Calculator works out the per-pay-period figure.
If you are 50 or older in 2026
Part of this choice may already be made for you. Section 603 of the SECURE 2.0 Act requires catch-up contributions to be Roth when your prior-year Social Security wages from your federal employer exceeded an indexed threshold. IRS Notice 2025-67 set that threshold at $150,000 of 2025 wages, and TSP applies the rule from January 1, 2026. Above the line, your $8,000 or $11,250 of catch-up has to go Roth. Your first $24,500 is still your call. Details in our guide to the mandatory Roth catch-up.