Roth vs Traditional TSP
One number decides this: the retirement tax rate at which Roth starts beating traditional. This tool finds it from the 2026 IRS brackets, then shows the after-tax result both ways, because Roth costs more take-home pay today for the same contribution.
Reviewed by Jonathan D., 20-year federal employee · Formulas verified against IRS.gov and TSP.gov ·
| Measure | Traditional | Roth |
|---|---|---|
| Contributed per year | $5,000 | $3,900 |
| Take-home given up per year | $3,900 | $3,900 |
| Balance at retirement | $192,517 | $150,163 |
| After tax, yours to spend | $150,163 | $150,163 |
| Measure | Traditional | Roth |
|---|---|---|
| Contributed per year | $5,000 | $5,000 |
| Take-home given up per year | $3,900 | $5,000 |
| Balance at retirement | $192,517 | $192,517 |
| After tax, yours to spend | $150,163 | $192,517 |
| Modeled | Not modeled |
|---|---|
| 2026 federal income tax brackets and standard deduction for all four filing statuses, from IRS Rev. Proc. 2025-32, applied after any pre-tax payroll deductions you enter (FEHB and FEDVIP premiums under premium conversion, FSAFEDS). At 65 and over, the additional standard deduction (26 U.S.C. 63(f): $2,050 unmarried, $1,650 per spouse) and the $6,000 senior deduction with its 6 percent phase-out over $75,000 or $150,000 of MAGI (26 U.S.C. 151(d)(5)(C)), figured with and without the traditional contribution because it lowers MAGI. The senior deduction is scheduled only for tax years 2025 through 2028, so the projection drops it from 2029. | State and local income tax. Several states exempt some retirement income, which can move the break-even by several points. |
| The blended rate your traditional contribution actually saves, including the case where the contribution crosses a bracket line. | Itemized deductions, credits, the qualified business income deduction, and the extra deduction for blindness. A spouse who turns 65 during the projection (a spouse under 65 in 2026 is treated as under 65 throughout), the senior deduction on a separate return for a spouse with no income, and the Social Security number requirement for the senior deduction (151(d)(5)(C)(iv)). Pre-tax payroll deductions count only if you enter them. |
| The 2026 elective deferral limit of $24,500 plus the $8,000 and $11,250 catch-up limits. Your percent and any extra dollars are one election: the first $24,500 is regular and only the excess is catch-up, as TSP applies it. Each projection year uses the catch-up limit for the age you turn that year: none before 50, $11,250 only in the years you turn 60 through 63, and $8,000 again from the year you turn 64 (26 U.S.C. 414(v)(2)(E); TSPBK08). The section 415(c) annual additions limit of $72,000 on employee plus agency dollars, catch-up excluded, which 5 U.S.C. 8432(d) applies to the TSP; at the $400,000 basic pay this page accepts it never binds for a civilian. | Future inflation indexing of the limits: the 2026 dollar amounts are held for every projection year. The 415(c)(1)(B) leg (100 percent of pay), which only an election near 100 percent could reach; the form refuses an election that payroll taxes and the retirement deduction leave no room for. The section 401(a)(17) compensation limit ($360,000 in 2026): 5 U.S.C. 8432 sets agency money as a percent of basic pay and limits it only through section 415, so the tool does not apply it. |
| The SECURE 2.0 section 603 test and its arithmetic: above $150,000 of prior-year Social Security wages, dollars above the $24,500 regular limit are Roth under both elections, so the deduction, the take-home cost and the break-even rate are figured on the first $24,500. Below $24,500 the rule has nothing to reach. | Combat-zone tax-exempt pay, where TSP requires Roth catch-up regardless of income. |
| Agency automatic 1 percent and matching dollars for FERS employees and Blended Retirement System members, always traditional, figured each of 26 pay periods: the match you forfeit by contributing under 5 percent, the match you lose when contributions reach the annual limit early and stop, and the match the Roth side loses when it holds take-home steady. CSRS employees (5 U.S.C. 8351(b)(3)) and legacy uniformed members (5 U.S.C. 8440e(e) covers BRS only) get $0 of agency money. | Mid-year pay raises, step increases, promotions, and any year when you change your contribution percent. For BRS, the 60-day wait for the automatic 1 percent, the 2 years and 1 day wait for the match, and the stop at 26 years of service (8440e(e)(3)); the tool assumes you are inside both windows. |
| A single flat nominal return applied to both elections, with one twelfth of the annual contribution landing at the end of each month and compounding at one twelfth of the stated rate. | Market sequence risk, fund expense differences, and inflation. All figures are nominal future dollars. |
| A single flat retirement marginal rate on the traditional balance. | Bracket changes over time, IRMAA surcharges, the taxable share of Social Security, and required minimum distributions forcing income you did not want. |
The only thing that decides this
Traditional TSP skips the tax now and pays it later. Roth TSP pays the tax now and skips it later. Hold your paycheck steady and the whole question collapses to a rate comparison: whichever rate is lower is the one you want to pay. The break-even figure at the top of this page is the rate your traditional deduction actually saves you in 2026. Expect a higher rate in retirement and Roth is the better bet. Expect a lower one and traditional is.
Notice what is missing from that: your return assumption and your years to retirement. Both scale the Roth side and the traditional side by the same factor, so they cancel. Change the return from 5 percent to 9 percent in the tool and watch the break-even rate hold still. A long horizon does not favor Roth on its own. The one exception is a projection that crosses a catch-up age, such as turning 64 when the higher limit for ages 60 through 63 ends: the dollars going in change, and so can the rate the deduction saves.
Why we show two framings
Contribute $5,000 traditional in the 22 percent bracket and your paycheck drops by $3,900, because the deduction hands $1,100 back. Contribute $5,000 Roth and your paycheck drops by the full $5,000. Those are not the same decision, so comparing them as if they were loads the answer toward Roth.
The same take-home panel keeps your paycheck fixed and shrinks the Roth contribution to match, which isolates the rate bet. The same dollars panel keeps the contribution fixed and shows what Roth really buys you: more sheltered money, at a real cost to this month's budget. If you are already contributing the full $24,500 limit, the second framing is the one that matters, because $24,500 of Roth money is worth more at retirement than $24,500 of traditional money and the limit will not let you make up the difference.
The match drops out only when the dollars stay the same
Agency money is always traditional. TSP puts it in one sentence: agency or service contributions always go into your traditional balance, regardless of your contribution choice. The match is figured each pay period on what you put in that period, so the same dollars earn the same match whether they go Roth or traditional. Since that is true under either election, it drops out of the same dollars comparison.
It does not drop out of the same take-home comparison. Holding your paycheck steady means putting fewer dollars into Roth, $3,900 instead of $5,000 in the example above, and the match follows the dollars: 3.9 percent of pay draws a 3.45 percent match instead of 4 percent, $550 a year less on a $100,000 salary. Whenever the Roth side loses match, the result headline counts it and names the winner after the lost match. CSRS employees and uniformed members under the legacy retired pay system get no agency money, so none of this applies to them.
What does matter is whether you are capturing the match at all. Five percent of basic pay draws the full 4 percent match plus the 1 percent automatic contribution. Anything under 5 percent leaves money behind, and the tool prints the annual figure you are forfeiting. Fix that before you spend another minute on the Roth question. The other way to lose match is the reverse: contribute so much that you reach the annual limit before the last pay period, and your contributions stop along with the match for the rest of the year. The tool flags the pay period and the dollars when that happens. Our TSP Contribution Calculator works out the per-pay-period figure.
If you are 50 or older in 2026
Part of this choice may already be made for you. Section 603 of the SECURE 2.0 Act requires catch-up contributions to be Roth when your prior-year Social Security wages from your federal employer exceeded an indexed threshold. IRS Notice 2025-67 set that threshold at $150,000 of 2025 wages, and TSP applies the rule from January 1, 2026. TSP takes one election, and your dollars become catch-up only after they pass the $24,500 regular limit. Above the wage line, that excess, up to $8,000 or $11,250, has to go Roth. Your first $24,500 is still your call, and if you put in $24,500 or less the rule does not touch you. Enter your 2025 wages above the threshold and the tool deducts only that $24,500, which is the point most calculators miss: a 61-year-old contributing the full $35,750 does not get a $35,750 deduction. For a single filer on $160,000 of basic pay that drops the first-year tax saving from $8,580 to $5,880, and the Roth catch-up shows up as after-tax money on both sides of the comparison. Details in our guide to the mandatory Roth catch-up.