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600 NWS Staff Cut, 55 Offices Understaffed. Then Came the Tornadoes.

NWS lost 600 employees. 55 of 122 offices are critically understaffed. The April 13 Kansas tornadoes raised the question nobody wants to answer.

By FedTools Team9 min read

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600 NWS Staff Cut, 55 Offices Understaffed. Then Came the Tornadoes.

Last Updated: April 19, 2026

On April 13, 2026, five tornadoes hit the Kansas City area in a single evening. The National Weather Service had not anticipated a tornado threat for most of the day. A watch went out around 6:35 p.m., roughly 30 minutes before the first tornado touched down.

That same week, NWS confirmed that 9 forecast offices are still launching weather balloons only once a day instead of twice, because they don't have enough staff to maintain the standard schedule. The NWS lost approximately 600 employees to DOGE-era cuts in early 2025. At the peak of the crisis, 55 of 122 forecast offices had vacancy rates above 20%.

Nobody has proven that staffing cuts caused the late warning on April 13. But five former NWS directors warned exactly this would happen, in writing, a year ago.

Key Takeaways

  • NWS lost 600 employees (4,200 → below 4,000) through DOGE-era cuts in early 2025
  • 55 of 122 forecast offices hit critical vacancy rates (20%+) at the peak of the crisis
  • 9 offices still launch weather balloons once daily instead of twice, degrading forecast model accuracy
  • The April 13 Kansas tornado watch was issued ~30 minutes before the first tornado, after a day of no anticipated threat
  • The FY2027 budget proposes cutting NOAA by $1.6 billion more (from $5.6B to $4.0B)
  • All 5 living former NWS directors warned of "needless loss of life" in a May 2025 open letter

What happened to NWS staffing

Between January and April 2025, approximately 600 NWS employees left. About 100 were probationary workers fired outright. The rest, roughly 500, accepted buyout or early retirement offers during the DOGE-era workforce reduction.

The agency had roughly 700 vacancies before the cuts started. That means the departures hit an already-stretched workforce. By spring 2025, 55 of 122 NWS forecast offices had vacancy rates of 20% or higher. At least 8 offices could no longer staff around the clock.

Specific cases that illustrate the scale:

Office Situation
Miami + Key West, FL ~40% workforce shortage
Goodland, KS Down 8 meteorologists, halted 24-hour forecasts
Omaha, NE + Rapid City, SD Weather balloon launches fully suspended
NWS Austin/San Antonio 12% vacancy in Jan 2025, rose to 23% by April
35 forecast offices nationwide Meteorologist-in-charge position vacant

The weather balloon problem

Weather balloons carry instruments called radiosondes into the upper atmosphere twice a day, at midnight and noon UTC (7 a.m. and 7 p.m. Eastern). The data they collect, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure at different altitudes, feeds directly into the numerical weather prediction models that forecasters use to issue watches and warnings.

When an office drops to once-daily launches, the morning data is missing. That matters most for afternoon and evening severe weather events, exactly the scenario on April 13 in Kansas.

As of April 2026, 9 NWS offices are still on once-daily schedules. Sites in Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Wyoming remain affected. Five offices, Kotzebue AK, Albany NY, Gray ME, Omaha NE, and Rapid City SD, had balloon launches suspended entirely during the worst of the staffing crisis.

The April 13 Kansas outbreak

On April 13, 2026, a severe weather outbreak produced at least 14 tornado reports across Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Five tornadoes hit the Kansas City area in one evening, with the most serious damage in and near Ottawa, Kansas.

The critical timeline: NWS did not anticipate a tornado threat for Kansas City for most of the day. A tornado watch was issued around 6:35 p.m., approximately 30 minutes before the first tornado touched down. Local offices then issued individual warnings as storms developed.

Retired meteorologists pointed to the shift from 7 a.m. to noon balloon launches at Great Plains offices. Missing that morning upper-air data window can degrade the model runs that forecasters rely on for afternoon and evening convective predictions.

NWS has not confirmed whether the specific offices responsible for April 13 forecasting were affected by balloon launch changes. Senators Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin sent a letter to NWS Director Ken Graham asking whether staffing played a role.

The Texas floods that changed the conversation

The defining test case came earlier: July 4, 2025. Catastrophic flash floods along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County, Texas, killed at least 135 people, including 37 children. The NWS Austin/San Antonio office had a 23% vacancy rate at the time.

NWS had issued 22 escalating alerts for the area over July 3 and 4. A NOAA inspector general investigation found "uneven warnings" and "communication gaps" but could not definitively link the 135 deaths to staffing levels.

The distinction matters. NWS did issue warnings. The question is whether a fully staffed office would have issued them earlier, more clearly, or with better coordination with local emergency managers. That question has no clean answer, and probably never will.

After the Texas floods, Trump granted NWS direct hiring authority for 450 employees. Congress followed in January 2026, directing NWS to "maintain staffing levels" in the full-year appropriations bill and allocating $10 million specifically for restaffing.

The FY2027 budget proposal

On April 3, 2026, the White House released its FY2027 budget. It proposes cutting NOAA from approximately $5.6 billion to $4.0 billion, a $1.6 billion reduction that is roughly 29%.

What the budget would eliminate:

  • The Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (entirely)
  • The National Severe Storms Laboratory
  • NOAA's ocean wildlife protection role (transferred to Interior)
  • Educational grant programs (characterized as spreading "baseless environmental alarm")

Congress has rejected large NOAA cuts before. The FY2026 cycle followed the same pattern: the White House proposed deep cuts, bipartisan appropriators restored funding. Senator Jerry Moran (R-KS), the primary Senate appropriator for NWS, toured Kansas tornado damage in April 2026 and has historically championed full NWS funding.

The smart bet is that Congress will again fund NOAA above the White House request. But the annual fight creates uncertainty for NWS employees, delays hiring plans, and makes it harder to recruit meteorologists into an agency whose future budget is debated every year.

What five former directors said

In May 2025, all five living former NWS Directors signed an open letter:

"Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life."

The signatories: Louis Uccellini, Jack Hayes, D.L. Johnson, John Kelly Jr., and E.W. Friday. This was the first time all living former directors had issued a joint public statement.

NWSEO President JoAnn Becker put it more bluntly: "We want to try and meet the mission. Physically we cannot because we don't have enough people."

If you work at NWS or NOAA

Three things matter for your career planning right now.

The hiring push is real but slow. NWS received direct hiring authority for 450 positions in July 2025. New hires need 12 to 18 months of training before they can forecast independently. That means the staffing recovery, even if fully funded, will not be complete until late 2026 at the earliest.

The FY2027 budget fight will determine your next year. If Congress follows historical patterns and restores NOAA funding, your position is likely secure. If the $1.6 billion cut goes through (unlikely but possible), another round of reductions could follow.

If you're considering separation, run the numbers first. Use the Severance Pay Calculator to estimate your RIF payout. If you've been offered VERA or VSIP, the VERA/VSIP Decision Calculator compares the buyout against staying. For pension modeling, the FERS Retirement Calculator shows how your annuity changes with different separation dates.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many NWS employees were cut?

Approximately 600 total between January and April 2025. About 100 were probationary employees fired outright, and roughly 500 accepted buyout or early retirement offers. The NWS workforce dropped from approximately 4,200 to below 4,000.

Are weather balloon launches still reduced?

Yes. As of April 2026, 9 NWS offices are still launching weather balloons only once per day instead of the standard twice daily. Morning upper-air data feeds directly into the forecast models that predict severe afternoon and evening weather. Missing that data degrades predictions.

Did NWS staffing cuts cause the Kansas tornadoes?

The tornadoes are natural events. The question is about warning lead time. On April 13, the tornado watch came roughly 30 minutes before the first tornado, after a day of no anticipated threat. Retired meteorologists cited balloon timing changes as a potential factor. No formal investigation has been completed.

What does the FY2027 budget mean for NWS?

The White House proposes cutting NOAA by $1.6 billion (to $4.0 billion). Congress has historically rejected large NOAA cuts, and bipartisan appropriators are expected to do so again. But the annual uncertainty complicates hiring and retention.

Can NWS employees take VERA or VSIP?

NOAA has offered buyouts previously, and the recent departures included voluntary incentives. Federal severance is one week of pay per year of service, capped at 52 weeks. Use the Severance Pay Calculator to estimate your payout.

Sources

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