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OPM RIF Performance Rule 2026: Who Survives Federal Layoffs

OPM proposed rule 2026-04377 replaces seniority with performance scores in federal RIFs. See the 7/5/3/0 scoring system and worked examples.

By FedTools Team18 min read

OPM RIF Performance Rule 2026: How Your Score Decides Who Survives Federal Layoffs

Last Updated: March 5, 2026 Reading Time: 14 min

On March 5, 2026, OPM published a proposed rule (Federal Register 2026-04377) that would replace seniority with performance ratings as the primary factor in federal Reduction in Force decisions. It is the most significant structural change to RIF rules since the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978.

Under the proposed rule, a 15-year career employee with solid "Fully Successful" ratings could be laid off before a 5-year employee with "Outstanding" ratings. The math below makes clear exactly how that happens.

Key Takeaways

  • OPM's proposed rule (2026-04377) makes your performance score, not your seniority, the primary factor in who survives a federal RIF
  • The new scoring system: Outstanding = 7 points, Exceeds Fully Successful = 5 points, Fully Successful = 3 points, Minimally Successful or Unacceptable = 0 points (three appraisals totaled, max 21 points)
  • Veterans preference is demoted from a categorical protection to bonus points added on top of your performance score
  • Three OPM proposed rules are connected: agencies control ratings (2026-03619), ratings control layoff order (2026-04377), and employees lose independent appeals (2026-02576)
  • The rule is still proposed. The comment period closes May 4, 2026. Real RIFs are happening NOW under current rules, which expired the moratorium on February 13
  • The forced distribution comment period closes March 26, 2026. That is this month. If you want to comment, act now

The Proposed Scoring System: 7/5/3/0

Under the proposed rule, every employee would receive a Performance Score based on their three most recent annual ratings of record.

Rating Level Points
Level 5: Outstanding 7
Level 4: Exceeds Fully Successful 5
Level 3: Fully Successful 3
Level 2: Minimally Successful 0
Level 1: Unacceptable 0

The three ratings are totaled. Three Outstanding ratings = 7+7+7 = 21 points maximum.

Veterans preference points are added on top of the performance score:

  • 30% or greater service-connected disability: +5 points
  • Other veterans preference eligible: +3 points

A veteran with three Outstanding ratings could score as high as 26 points. But veterans preference is now a supplement to performance, not a primary protection.

Note on revision from the earlier draft: A draft OPM circulated in November 2025 assigned 1 point for Unacceptable and 2 points for Minimally Successful. The published proposed rule sets both to 0. The bottom two rating levels offer zero RIF protection.

The new retention order

The proposed rule flips the current factor order:

Factor Current System Proposed System
Tenure group 1st (primary) 1st (unchanged)
Veterans preference 2nd 3rd (as bonus points)
Length of service 3rd 4th (tiebreaker only)
Performance score 4th (lowest weight) 2nd (primary factor)

Under the current rules, tenure and veterans preference dominate. Performance barely matters. The proposed rule inverts this entirely.

How the current system works (for comparison)

Under current regulations (5 CFR Part 351), RIF retention is decided in this order:

Step 1: Tenure Group

  • Group I: Career employees not on probation (most protected)
  • Group II: Career-conditional employees
  • Group III: Temporary and term appointments (least protected)

Within each group, employees are divided by veterans preference subgroup:

  • Subgroup AD: Veterans with 30%+ compensable service-connected disability
  • Subgroup A: Other veterans preference eligible
  • Subgroup B: Non-veterans

Step 2: Adjusted Service Computation Date (SCD)

Within each group and subgroup, employees are ranked by their adjusted SCD, which is actual years of service plus a performance credit:

  • Level 5 (Outstanding): +20 years added
  • Level 4 (Exceeds Fully Successful): +16 years added
  • Level 3 (Fully Successful): +12 years added
  • Level 2 or 1: No credit

The credit uses the most recent rating of record, averaged over three ratings. A single high rating provides significant protection under the current system.

The real-world math: who survives under each system

Scenario 1: The 15-year veteran vs. the 5-year star

Employee A: GS-12, 15 years of service, all three ratings Fully Successful (Level 3) Employee B: GS-12, 5 years of service, all three ratings Outstanding (Level 5)

Current system result:

  • Employee A adjusted SCD: 15 actual years + 12-year credit = 27-year SCD
  • Employee B adjusted SCD: 5 actual years + 20-year credit = 25-year SCD
  • Employee A is retained. Seniority, combined with the performance credit, wins.

Proposed new system result:

  • Employee A performance score: 3+3+3 = 9 points
  • Employee B performance score: 7+7+7 = 21 points
  • Employee B is retained. A 10-year seniority advantage is completely wiped out.

Scenario 2: The veteran with mid-level ratings

Employee C: GS-11, 10 years, veteran with 30% disability, all Fully Successful ratings Employee D: GS-11, 6 years, non-veteran, two Outstanding and one Exceeds Fully Successful

Current system result:

  • Employee C is in Tenure Group I, Subgroup AD, the best-protected category. Non-veterans at the same grade and tenure are cut first.
  • Employee D is in Subgroup B. Employee D is laid off first.

Proposed new system result:

  • Employee C: 3+3+3 = 9 points + 5 (veterans) = 14 points
  • Employee D: 7+7+5 = 19 points + 0 (no preference) = 19 points
  • Employee D is retained. Three strong ratings overcome veterans preference.

Veterans preference still provides meaningful protection. The 5-point addition can be decisive in close races. But it no longer provides the categorical protection that has historically made Subgroup AD employees nearly untouchable.

What this means in dollar terms

A GS-12, Step 5 in the Washington-Baltimore locality earns $108,245 annually in 2026. If that employee is laid off:

Situation Outcome Tool
GS-12 with three Fully Successful (9 pts) At serious risk if competing against any Exceeds or Outstanding performers Use the Severance Pay Calculator
GS-12 with three Outstanding (21 pts) Retained ahead of all lower-scoring colleagues No action needed
GS-12 who is separated in a RIF Eligible for severance pay based on years and age Estimate your severance
GS-12 who takes early retirement under VERA FERS annuity begins immediately Check VERA eligibility

The three-rule system: how they work together

These three OPM proposed rules are often reported separately. Read together, the structure is clearer.

Rule 1: Performance Appraisal (2026-03619): "Control the ratings"

Published February 24, 2026. Comment period closed March 26, 2026.

This rule caps the number of employees who can receive Level 4 or Level 5 ratings (forced distribution, modeled on the existing SES 30% cap). Currently 65% of federal employees receive a top-two rating. Under this cap, roughly 740,000 employees would be moved down, often from Level 5 to Level 3.

Rule 2: RIF Performance Scoring (2026-04377): "Use ratings to decide who goes"

Published March 5, 2026. Comment period closes May 4, 2026.

This rule makes those same ratings the primary layoff factor. Employees with lower ratings face RIF before senior employees.

Rule 3: RIF Appeals (2026-02576): "Eliminate independent review"

Published February 10, 2026. Comment period closed March 12, 2026.

This rule transfers RIF appeals from the independent Merit Systems Protection Board to OPM itself. Federal court review is eliminated. Employees cannot get an independent third party to review whether the RIF was conducted properly.

The combined effect: Agencies control what ratings employees receive (Rule 1). Those ratings determine who is laid off (Rule 2). Employees cannot appeal to an independent body if they believe the process was abused (Rule 3).

AFGE National President Everett Kelley described the package as "a blueprint for faster, less accountable mass firings."

The connection between Rules 1 and 2 is worth spelling out mathematically. A supervisor who gives an employee Level 3 instead of Level 5 (because of the forced distribution cap) reduces that employee's RIF score from 21 points to 9 points. That 12-point reduction, in a competitive RIF field, could easily determine whether they survive.

Who loses RIF protections entirely

Under current rules, only SES members and political appointees are excluded from RIF procedures. The proposed rule expands that list significantly:

  • Probationary employees (typically the first year of service)
  • Employees on time-limited appointments of one year or less
  • All career excepted service employees, including positions converted to Schedule Policy/Career (formerly Schedule F)

The Schedule Policy/Career overlap: Approximately 50,000 positions were converted to Schedule Policy/Career effective March 7, 2026. These employees are now at-will for discharge purposes. Under the proposed RIF rule, they would also be excluded from RIF competition entirely. That is double exposure: they can be fired without cause AND would lose the procedural protections of the RIF system.

One protection retained under the proposed rule: Agencies cannot initiate an erosion-of-duties reclassification (downgrading an employee's position mid-RIF) in a way that adversely affects that employee's retention standing between the time a RIF is announced and the time it is completed. This prevents using reclassifications as a weapon during an active RIF.

OPM's authority to transfer RIF appeals from MSPB to itself rests on a legal argument: MSPB's jurisdiction over RIF appeals exists only by OPM regulation (5 CFR 351.901), not by statute. Congress deliberately excluded RIF appeals from MSPB's statutory jurisdiction in the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978. If OPM created the authority by regulation, OPM can revoke it by regulation.

Federal employee unions dispute this analysis. FedSmith's legal commentary notes this question is "likely to return to the Supreme Court." AFGE has stated it will pursue all legal options if the appeals rule is finalized.

If the appeals rule takes effect, RIF appeals would go to OPM's Merit System Accountability and Compliance office. Reviews would be based primarily on written records. No federal court appeal would be available. Employees retain union grievance rights under collective bargaining agreements only if their CBA is not superseded by the new rule, which the proposed regulation addresses by stating the new appeals process would supersede negotiated procedures.

Timeline and key dates

Date Event
November 2025 OPM circulates draft RIF rule to agencies internally
February 6, 2026 Executive Order 14279 provides the legal basis for all three rules
February 10, 2026 RIF Appeals rule (2026-02576) published
February 13, 2026 RIF moratorium from Continuing Appropriations Act expires. Agencies can now issue 60-day RIF notices
February 24, 2026 Forced distribution rule (2026-03619) published
March 5, 2026 RIF performance-based scoring rule (2026-04377) published
March 12, 2026 Comment period closed for RIF Appeals rule (2026-02576)
March 26, 2026 Comment period closes for forced distribution rule (2026-03619)
May 4, 2026 Comment period closes for RIF performance scoring rule (2026-04377)
Summer 2026 (est.) Final rule could be published if OPM moves at similar pace to other recent rules
September 30, 2026 End of FY2026. Annual ratings crystallize for the current rating cycle

Critical context: The RIF moratorium expired February 13. Agencies can now issue 60-day RIF notices. Real RIF notices are being issued now, under the current system. The proposed rule would apply to future RIFs after finalization, but HR teams are preparing for it now.

What you should do now

Whether or not this rule is finalized, federal employees in restructuring agencies face real decisions now.

If you are in an agency with an active RIF or major restructuring:

  • Review your most recent three performance appraisals. Under the proposed system, your total score is what matters.
  • Request copies of your official ratings of record from HR if you do not have them.
  • Calculate your potential severance pay so you know your financial cushion. Use the Severance Pay Calculator.
  • If your agency is offering VERA, check your eligibility now. Use the VERA Eligibility Calculator to see if you qualify before a RIF forces your hand.
  • Model your FERS annuity at different retirement ages to understand what early retirement actually costs you in monthly income. Use the FERS Retirement Calculator.

If your agency is not currently restructuring:

  • Document your accomplishments in writing throughout the year. Performance is now the primary currency of job security. If your agency implements forced distribution and your supervisor must choose who gets Level 3 vs. Level 5, detailed accomplishment records strengthen your case.
  • Understand your current retention standing. Know your adjusted SCD under the current system so you have a baseline.
  • Consider submitting a public comment by May 4, 2026 (instructions below).

If you are a manager or HR professional:

  • Study the proposed retention register mechanics. HR offices will need to build performance-based retention registers if this rule is finalized.
  • Note the erosion-of-duties reclassification limitation: you cannot downgrade positions mid-RIF to affect retention standing.

How to submit a public comment

The comment deadline for the RIF performance scoring rule is May 4, 2026. For the forced distribution companion rule, the deadline is March 26, 2026.

To comment on Federal Register Document 2026-04377 (the RIF performance scoring rule):

  1. Go to regulations.gov
  2. Search for "2026-04377" or "Reduction in Force" in the search bar
  3. Submit your comment electronically (comments can be brief, even 2-3 sentences count)
  4. Do not include your Social Security number, home address, or other sensitive information. Comments are public.

Effective comments address the specific regulatory text being changed, describe concrete impacts on real employees, and propose alternative approaches OPM should consider.

Comments can also be mailed to: Office of Personnel Management, Employee Services, 1900 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20415.

Estimate your financial cushion now

Knowing your numbers is useful regardless of how this rule lands. Three calculators apply directly to this situation:

Severance Pay Calculator If you are laid off in a RIF, your severance is calculated on years of service: one week of basic pay per year for the first 10 years, two weeks per year after that, plus an age adjustment. Get your number before a RIF notice lands.

VERA Eligibility Calculator If your agency offers a Voluntary Early Retirement, you may be able to retire now rather than wait for a RIF. Check your eligibility instantly based on your age and years of service.

FERS Retirement Calculator If you are weighing early retirement against waiting, model your monthly annuity at different ages. Knowing the dollar difference between retiring at 57 versus 62 makes the decision clearer.

Career transition note: If you are updating your resume and LinkedIn profile in response to workforce changes, make sure your professional headshot reflects where you want to go, not where you have been. FedShot AI generates six professional headshots in 60 seconds from a single photo, designed specifically for federal employees facing career transitions.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is OPM's proposed new RIF scoring system?

OPM proposed on March 5, 2026 (Federal Register 2026-04377) that performance ratings replace seniority as the primary factor in federal layoffs. The scoring system awards 7 points for Outstanding, 5 points for Exceeds Fully Successful, 3 points for Fully Successful, and 0 points for Minimally Successful or Unacceptable. Three most recent appraisals are totaled for a maximum of 21 points. Veterans preference adds 5 or 3 additional points.

Under the current RIF system, how is retention standing determined?

Under current rules (5 CFR Part 351), retention is decided by four factors: (1) Tenure group, (2) Veterans preference subgroup, (3) Adjusted service computation date (actual service plus performance credit of 20, 16, or 12 years for Level 5, 4, or 3 ratings), and (4) Performance, which is the lowest-weighted factor. A career veteran with 20 years of service has historically been nearly impossible to lay off before a junior non-veteran, regardless of performance.

How does the proposed rule interact with the forced distribution performance rating cap?

The two rules work as a coordinated system. The forced distribution rule (2026-03619) caps top ratings at roughly 30%, down from the current 65% of employees receiving Level 4 or 5. The RIF scoring rule then uses those ratings as the primary layoff factor. Critics argue this means agencies control both who gets high ratings and who gets laid off, effectively enabling politically targeted separations dressed up as performance-based decisions.

Who is excluded from RIF protections under the proposed rule?

The proposed rule would exclude: probationary employees, employees on time-limited appointments of one year or less, and all career excepted service employees, including the approximately 50,000 positions converted to Schedule Policy/Career effective March 7, 2026. These employees could be separated without the procedural protections such as retention register competition, bump and retreat rights, and CTAP/ICTAP priority placement.

Does the proposed rule affect veterans' preference in layoffs?

Yes, significantly. Under the current system, a veteran in Subgroup AD (30%+ disability) is categorically superior to any non-veteran regardless of performance. Under the proposed rule, veterans preference adds 5 or 3 points to the performance score. But a non-veteran with consistently Outstanding ratings (21 points) can outrank a veteran with Fully Successful ratings (9 points plus 3 equals 12 points). Veterans advocacy groups including NARFE have flagged serious concerns about this change.

What happens to MSPB appeal rights for RIF decisions?

A companion proposed rule (Federal Register 2026-02576, comment period closed March 12) would transfer RIF appeals from the independent MSPB to OPM's own compliance office. If finalized, employees would appeal to OPM rather than MSPB, with no right of further appeal to federal court. Unions are preparing legal challenges.

A GS-12 with 15 years and Fully Successful ratings vs. a GS-12 with 5 years and Outstanding ratings: who survives?

Under the current system, the 15-year employee likely survives with an adjusted SCD of 27 years vs. the 5-year employee's 25 years. Under the proposed system, the 5-year employee with Outstanding ratings survives with 21 points vs. 9 points. This complete reversal is the intended outcome of the rule.

When could this rule take effect?

The comment period closes May 4, 2026. A final rule could be published as early as summer 2026 given OPM's pace on related rules. Court challenges from unions are expected and could delay implementation. No retroactive application to current RIFs has been proposed.

How do I calculate my potential severance pay if I am laid off in a RIF?

Severance for a RIF separation is based on years of service: one week of basic pay per year for the first 10 years, two weeks per year beyond 10, plus a 2% per-year age adjustment over age 40. Use the Severance Pay Calculator to estimate your payout.

Should I consider early retirement (VERA) to avoid a potential RIF?

If your agency offers VERA, it lets you retire before normal eligibility without the standard age and service requirements. It eliminates the uncertainty of waiting to see if you survive a RIF. Use the VERA Eligibility Calculator to check eligibility. Keep in mind early retirement means a reduced FERS annuity due to fewer years of service.

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