Last Updated: August 14, 2026 Reading Time: 7 min

One inflation number sets next year's raise for about 75 million Americans: the CPI-W average for July, August, and September 2026. But that single number flows through five different statutory formulas, and depending on which retirement system you're in, the identical 3.1% produces 3.1%, 2.1%, or nothing.

Five Systems, One Input

Every one of these formulas starts from the same place: the percentage change in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of 2026 versus the third quarter of 2025. What happens next depends on the statute:

System Formula At the current 3.1% count
Social Security Full CPI-W (42 U.S.C. 415(i)) 3.1%
CSRS Full CPI-W (5 U.S.C. 8340) 3.1%
FERS, age 62+ Diet COLA (5 U.S.C. 8462): full up to 2%, flat 2% in the 2-3% band, CPI-W minus 1 above 3% 2.1%
Military retired pay (High-3, BRS) Full CPI-W (10 U.S.C. 1401a) 3.1%
CSB/REDUX (before age 62) CPI-W minus 1 point when COLA exceeds 1% 2.1%
VA disability compensation Matched to the Social Security COLA by annual act of Congress 3.1%
FERS, under 62 No COLA until age 62 0%

Two details in that table carry most of the arguments on Reddit. First, the military number is not special: High-3 and BRS retirees get exactly the Social Security percentage. Second, the FERS 2-to-3% band pays a flat 2%, not CPI-minus-1. That is why FERS paid 2.0% in both 2025 and 2026, and why crossing the 3% line this year would switch the formula to CPI-W minus a point.

The Dollar Matrix

Here is what the current 3.1% count pays across systems and benefit levels. This is the comparison nobody publishes side by side:

Annual benefit SS / CSRS / Military High-3 / VA (+3.1%) FERS 62+ / REDUX (+2.1%) FERS under 62
$24,000 +$744/yr (+$62/mo) +$504/yr (+$42/mo) $0
$35,000 +$1,085/yr (+$90/mo) +$735/yr (+$61/mo) $0
$45,000 +$1,395/yr (+$116/mo) +$945/yr (+$79/mo) $0
$60,000 +$1,860/yr (+$155/mo) +$1,260/yr (+$105/mo) $0

FedTools computation at the locked 3.1% running count. Gross annual increases; the final COLA may land higher (TSCL: 3.6%).

A household with a CSRS annuity and a spouse on a FERS annuity will see two different percentages on the same news story. A military retiree drawing both retired pay and VA disability gets the full rate on both. A 58-year-old VERA taker gets zero on the annuity but the full rate on any Social Security they claim later, because the under-62 freeze applies only to the FERS annuity itself.

How the Last Three Years Compare

System 2025 2026 2027 (at current 3.1% count)
Social Security / CSRS / Military High-3 / VA 2.5% 2.8% 3.1%
FERS 62+ 2.0% 2.0% 2.1%
CSB/REDUX 1.5% 1.8% 2.1%

Notice the FERS row: 2.0%, 2.0%, and now barely more, even as the full-COLA systems climbed. The flat-2% band caught FERS retirees in both 2025 and 2026. If 2027 lands above 3%, the formula flips to minus-1, which at TSCL's 3.6% projection would mean 2.6% for FERS against 3.6% for CSRS, a 1-point gap on every dollar. Our FERS diet-COLA cumulative-loss analysis totals what that gap has cost since 2000.

REDUX retirees carry the same minus-1 in a different wrapper: it applies in any year the COLA tops 1%, with a one-time catch-up at 62 before the penalty resumes.

The Timing Fine Print

The percentages get announced together in mid-October, but the checks move on slightly different schedules:

  • Social Security: higher payment arrives January 2027.
  • CSRS/FERS: COLA effective December 1, 2026, first visible in the January 2027 annuity payment. First-year retirees get a prorated share based on months on the annuity roll.
  • Military retired pay: same December effective date, January payment.
  • VA disability: January 2027 payment, once the annual COLA act passes. It has virtually always passed.

Between now and then, two data releases matter: August CPI-W on September 11 and the September number in mid-October. We update the live 2027 COLA tracker the morning each release drops.

See What Your System Pays You

Model your annuity with COLA scenarios in the free FERS Retirement Calculator, or the Military Retirement Income Calculator for retired pay.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the 2027 COLA right now?

3.1% on the running count, with one of three months locked. Projections for the final number sit at 3.5 to 3.6%.

Is there a separate military COLA?

No. Military High-3 and BRS retired pay use the same CPI-W formula as Social Security.

Why is the FERS number lower?

The statutory diet-COLA: flat 2% in the 2-3% band, CPI-W minus 1 above 3%. And most FERS retirees under 62 get nothing at all.

Does VA disability automatically match Social Security?

By annual act of Congress rather than permanent formula, but it has virtually always passed, so in practice the rates match.

When will I see the money?

January 2027 payments across all five systems, following the mid-October announcement.

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