GS-9 vs a Private Offer: Break-Even Is 1.02x to 1.19x

Last Updated: October 11, 2026 Reading Time: 9 min

One GS-9 on r/govfire described a private offer at roughly double their salary and asked whether the federal benefits made up the gap. The usual answer is that federal benefits are worth 30 to 40 percent on top of salary, so a 2x offer is closer than it looks. We priced the package line by line from the statutes and the 2026 OPM pay tables, and the folk number is too high. On our assumptions, a 2026 GS-9 step 5 in the Rest of U.S. locality carries about $16,306 of benefits above a $69,954 salary, which is 23 percent. The break-even against an offer with no match, no employer health share and 10 PTO days is near 1.19x salary. Against an offer with a 4 percent match, the average employer health share and 15 PTO days, it is about 1.02x. The leaving-federal-service math, line by line, and the one-liner to recompute it with your own numbers, follow.

Quick Answers: GS-9 vs a Private Offer

How much more does a private job need to pay than a GS-9 salary to break even?

On our assumptions (a 5 percent discount rate, Self Only FEHB), a 2026 GS-9 step 5 in the Rest of U.S. locality ($69,954) breaks even at about $83,075, roughly 1.19x, against an offer with no 401(k) match, no employer health contribution and 10 PTO days, and at about $71,412 (1.02x) against an offer with a 4 percent match, the average employer health share and 15 PTO days. The table and the Python recomputation below show every input.

What is the FERS pension worth per year for someone who leaves early?

Each year adds 1 percent of your high-3 to a deferred annuity payable at 62, with the high-3 frozen at separation (5 U.S.C. § 8415(a); 5 U.S.C. § 8413(a); 5 U.S.C. § 8401(3)). For a 30-year-old at $69,954 that is about $700 a year of annuity starting at 62, a present value near $2,079 at a 5 percent discount rate, or 3 percent of pay, against the 4.4 percent FERS-FRAE contribution. Under five years of civilian service there is no annuity at all (5 U.S.C. § 8410).

Do I lose my TSP match if I leave federal service?

Your own contributions and the agency matching (up to 4 percent) are yours immediately. Only the automatic 1 percent and its earnings are forfeited if you separate before completing 3 years of civilian service (5 U.S.C. § 8432(g)(2)(B)); the threshold is 2 years for the senior and confidential positions and uniformed-services members named in § 8432(g)(2)(A) and (C). After that, all agency money is vested, 5 percent of pay if you contribute 5 percent.

Is FEHB worth more than private health insurance?

As an employee, not by much against the average surveyed employer. OPM's 2026 rate charts list the maximum government FEHB contribution for Self Only at $324.76 biweekly, about $8,444 a year, while, across KFF's surveyed private and nonfederal public employers with at least ten workers, the average employer contribution for single coverage was about $7,885 of a $9,325 single premium in 2025 (KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey). The gap is widest against an employer that offers no coverage. The real FEHB value is in retirement, and 5 U.S.C. § 8905(b)(1) requires enrollment for the five years immediately before you retire on an immediate annuity, or since your first opportunity to enroll if that is shorter. That test counts both your own FEHB enrollment and coverage as a family member, unless OPM waives the requirement.

Should I take the FERS refund when I leave?

Under five years of civilian service there is no annuity to lose, so the refund of your 4.4 percent contributions (paid on application to OPM after at least 31 consecutive days of separation) is the only pension asset you have. At five years or more, 5 U.S.C. § 8424(a) says payment of the lump-sum credit "voids all annuity rights" until you are reemployed under FERS, so you would be trading a deferred annuity for cash. Model it in the FERS Refund Calculator.

How much is federal annual leave worth in dollars?

A full-time employee with 3 to under 15 years of service earns 20 days a year (5 U.S.C. § 6303(a)(2)). At a GS-9 step 5 Rest of U.S. daily rate of $268.16 (annual rate divided by 2,087, times 8, under 5 U.S.C. § 5504(b)) that is about $5,363 a year, and unused annual leave is paid out in a lump sum when you separate (5 U.S.C. § 5551(a)). Sick leave accrues 13 days a year and is never paid out in cash when you leave.

Does the 1.1 percent FERS multiplier apply if I leave and take a deferred retirement at 62 with 20 years?

No. 5 U.S.C. § 8415(i) gives the 1.1 percent only to an employee who retires entitled to an immediate annuity under § 8412 at 62 or older with 20 years. A deferred annuitant under § 8413 is computed at 1 percent.

What does the break-even table leave out?

Career-length option value: FEHB in retirement, with the government paying 72 percent of the program-wide average premium (capped at 75 percent of the plan's premium), after an immediate retirement with five years of enrollment (your own or as a family member, unless OPM waives the requirement) or since your first opportunity to enroll, the 1.1 percent multiplier at 62 with 20 years, the FERS disability and survivor features, job security and locality and step growth. The table prices one year of each benefit at today's rates. It does not price staying thirty years, which our pension-value post does.

The Break-Even Table

Every number below rests on these assumptions, which we print with every use: a 2026 GS-9 step 5 (OPM tables 2026-RUS at 17.06 percent locality and 2026-DCB at 33.94 percent), age 30, at least five years of creditable civilian service and fewer than 15 years of service (20 annual leave days), FERS-FRAE at 4.4 percent, a 5 percent TSP contribution so agency money is 5 percent, Self Only FEHB at the 2026 maximum government share of $8,443.76, one year of pension accrual valued as 1 percent of a high-3 frozen at today's salary, paid annually from 62 through 84 and discounted at 5 percent, no post-62 cost-of-living adjustment, sick leave and holidays priced at $0, identical FICA on both jobs, taxes ignored. Private offer A has no 401(k) match, no employer health contribution and 10 PTO days. Private offer B is an illustrative benchmark with a 4 percent match on salary, the $7,885 KFF aggregate average employer health share (private and nonfederal public employers with at least ten workers) and 15 PTO days.

Percentages are of the locality-adjusted salary, because locality pay counts as basic pay for FERS and TSP purposes (5 U.S.C. § 5304(c)(2)(A)). Every cell is rounded once, at the end, from unrounded intermediates. FedTools computed this table on October 11, 2026 from the sources listed at the bottom; no OPM or TSP document carries these multiples, so treat them as our work, not the government's.

TSP: 5 Percent of Basic Pay, Vested on Two Clocks

The agency puts 1 percent of basic pay into your TSP every pay period even if you contribute nothing (5 U.S.C. § 8432(c)(1)(A)). Contribute 5 percent and the agency adds 4 percent in matching on top of that, for 5 percent of basic pay total (5 U.S.C. § 8432(c)(2)). At $69,954 that is $3,498 a year. A private employer's 4 percent match on the same salary is $2,798, so against offer B the TSP line is a $700 edge, not a $3,500 one.

The two pieces vest on different clocks. Your own money and the matching are yours from day one. The automatic 1 percent and its earnings are forfeited if you leave before completing three years of civilian service (5 U.S.C. § 8432(g)(2)(B)); the threshold is two years for the senior and confidential positions and uniformed-services members that § 8432(g)(2)(A) and (C) name. Our 3-year cliff post walks through what else changes at that mark.

FEHB: $8,444 Against the Surveyed Employer Average of $7,885

The government pays 72 percent of the program-wide average FEHB premium (5 U.S.C. § 8906(b)(1)). Of the average, not of your plan. OPM's 2026 rate charts show that maximum as $324.76 biweekly for Self Only, which annualizes to about $8,444. Pick a plan priced below about 96 percent of the average (72 divided by 75) and the government share drops to 75 percent of that plan's premium (5 U.S.C. § 8906(b)(2)), so the $8,444 is a ceiling that plans priced at or above that level reach.

Compare it with the offer in your hand. In 2025, across KFF's surveyed private and nonfederal public employers with at least ten workers, the average employer contribution for single coverage was about $7,885 of a $9,325 single premium, with the worker paying $1,440, according to the KFF Employer Health Benefits Survey. Against that benchmark, FEHB is worth about $560 a year more. Against a startup that offers no coverage, it is worth the whole $8,444.

Leave: 20 Days Is $5,363 at This Grade

A federal employee with at least five years of creditable civilian service and fewer than 15 years of service earns three-quarters of a day of annual leave per full biweekly pay period, 20 days a year, with 13 days under three years and 26 days at fifteen (5 U.S.C. § 6303(a)). The daily rate is the annual rate divided by 2,087 and multiplied by eight hours (5 U.S.C. § 5504(b)), which at $69,954 is $268.16. Twenty of those days are $5,363. When you separate, unused annual leave is paid in a lump sum at the pay you would have received had you stayed through the leave (5 U.S.C. § 5551(a)).

Sick leave is a different asset. It accrues at 13 days a year and the balance never caps (5 U.S.C. § 6307(a) and (b)), but the lump-sum statute covers annual leave only, so it is never paid out in cash when you leave. We priced it at $0. Valuing 13 sick days at the full daily rate would add about $3,486 to the package and roughly 0.05x to the offer A break-even.

The Pension Line: 1 Percent of a Frozen High-3 Against 4.4 Percent

Each year of FERS service adds 1 percent of your high-3 average pay to an annuity (5 U.S.C. § 8415(a)). Your high-3 is the highest average of basic pay over any three consecutive years (5 U.S.C. § 8401(3)), and for someone who leaves it is frozen in nominal dollars on the day they go. Leave after five years of civilian service and you keep a deferred annuity payable at 62 (5 U.S.C. § 8413(a)). Leave before five years and there is no FERS annuity at all (5 U.S.C. § 8410).

So for a 30-year-old GS-9, one more year of service buys $700 a year starting at 62. Discounting 23 annual payments from age 62 through 84 back to age 30 at 5 percent gives a present value of about $2,079, or 2.97 percent of pay.

Against that accrual sits the contribution. A post-2013 hire generally falls under FERS-FRAE, the "further revised annuity employee" category, only if all three statutory conditions were met on December 31, 2013 (5 U.S.C. § 8401(38)). Prior coverage or creditable service can preserve an earlier contribution category. Regular FERS-FRAE employees contribute 4.4 percent of basic pay; the listed law-enforcement, firefighter and similar special categories contribute 4.9 percent after the Social Security-rate subtraction (5 U.S.C. § 8422(a)(2) and (a)(3)(C); 26 U.S.C. § 3101(a)). For regular employees the table rate is 10.6 percent and the Social Security rate is 6.2 percent, so 4.4 percent is withheld. Both the federal paycheck and the private one pay the 6.2 percent OASDI; the 4.4 percent is the extra deduction only the federal job has. At $69,954 it is $3,078 a year, against $2,079 of accrual value. Presented together, the pension line is a net of about $1,000 a year in the private offer's favor at a 5 percent discount rate. Presenting the 4.4 percent alone, as pure loss, overstates the case for leaving.

How the Break-Even Moves

Three inputs move the multiple more than the rest.

• The discount rate. At 3 percent, the pension accrual is worth 6.58 percent of pay and the offer A break-even rises to 1.22x (1.05x for offer B). At 7 percent it is worth 1.38 percent of pay and the break-even falls to 1.17x (1.01x).
• Under five years of civilian service. No vested annuity, and the 4.4 percent is refundable under 5 U.S.C. § 8424 once you have been separated 31 consecutive days and apply, so both pension lines go to $0. Break-even is 1.20x against offer A and 1.03x against offer B.
• Under three years. Leave drops to 13 days and the agency 1 percent is forfeited, so the package is smaller again and the break-even lower.

At 15 or more years of service, annual leave rises to 26 days a year, and the table does not cover that case.

None of the three gets anywhere near 2x. On this math a doubled salary clears the no-benefits break-even by about $56,833 a year at the Rest of U.S. rate.

What the Table Cannot Price

The annualized math prices one year of each benefit at today's rates. Four things it leaves out are the reasons people stay.

FEHB in retirement. FEHB follows you into retirement only if you meet the five years immediately before retirement, or since your first opportunity to enroll, test (5 U.S.C. § 8905(b)(1)). For otherwise eligible retirement coverage, the five-year or first-opportunity test counts both your own FEHB enrollment and coverage as a family member, unless OPM waives the requirement. A deferred annuitant who left at 32 is not an enrolled employee in the five years before the annuity starts, so under the statute's wording that person has no FEHB at 62. Confirm your own case against OPM's deferred-retirement guidance before relying on it.

The 1.1 percent multiplier. It belongs to people who retire on an immediate annuity under § 8412 at 62 or later with 20 years (5 U.S.C. § 8415(i)). A deferred annuitant who left early never gets it, even with 20 years, even at 62.

The disability and survivor features and job security. Neither has a line in the table.

Step and locality growth. The table holds salary flat. Thirty years of step increases and locality adjustments compound into the high-3 in a way one year of accrual cannot show, and our pension-value post prices the full career.

A Decision Rule by Years of Service

• Under 3 years. The agency 1 percent forfeits (5 U.S.C. § 8432(g)(2)(B)), there is no annuity (5 U.S.C. § 8410), and your 4.4 percent is refundable after 31 consecutive days of separation (5 U.S.C. § 8424(a)). The package is at its smallest, and against a no-benefits offer A the offer only has to clear about 1.15x to 1.17x. Read the 3-year cliff post before you resign.
• 3 to 5 years. All agency money (5 percent of pay at a 5 percent contribution) is vested, but still no annuity. The refund, once you apply, returns the 4.4 percent and voids nothing you had.
• 5 to 10 years. You now hold a deferred annuity at 62, 1 percent of a frozen high-3 per year (5 U.S.C. § 8413(a)). Taking the refund "voids all annuity rights" for that service unless you come back and redeposit (5 U.S.C. § 8424(a)). Run the numbers before you cash out.
• 10 years or more. You can also elect, in writing and only if you have not taken the refund, a deferred annuity starting on a date you pick from your minimum retirement age up to 62, reduced five-twelfths of 1 percent for each full month before 62, which is 5 percent a year, unless the exception in 5 U.S.C. § 8415(h)(2) applies (5 U.S.C. § 8413(b); 5 U.S.C. § 8415(h)). At this point the FEHB-in-retirement and 1.1 percent questions above dominate the annual math.

Recompute It With Your Own Numbers

The table is a four-line calculation. Change the salary, the discount rate, or the private offer's benefits and run it.

S=69954; r=0.05; a0,a1,a2=30,62,85; k=8/2087; FEHB=8443.76; KFF=9325-1440
pv=sum((1+r)**-t for t in range(a1-a0,a2-a0))          # PV at 30 of $1/yr paid ages 62..84
fed=S*(1+0.05+0.01*pv-0.044+20*k)+FEHB                  # TSP 5%, pension accrual PV, FERS-FRAE 4.4%, 20 AL days, FEHB share
A=fed/(1+10*k); B=(fed-KFF)/(1+0.04+15*k)               # offer A: no benefits, 10 PTO; offer B: 4% match, KFF health, 15 PTO
print(round(pv,4), round(fed), round(A), round(A/S,3), round(B), round(B/S,3))
# expected: 2.9723 86260 83075 1.188 71412 1.021   (set S=80041 for DC: 97480 93882 1.173 81636 1.02)

Set S to your own locality-adjusted salary from your Leave and Earnings Statement.

Price Your Own Grade and Locality

Use the free GS Pay Calculator to pull the exact 2026 locality-adjusted salary for your grade, step and locality area, which is the S the percentage lines in the table are multiplied by. Try it now →

Then take that salary into the FERS Deferred Retirement Calculator for the annuity you would keep, the FERS Refund Calculator for what the refund costs, and the Annual Leave Payout Calculator for the lump sum on your way out.

Related Resources

• Is the FERS Pension Worth It?: The full-career value this post does not price.
• Leaving Federal Service Before 3 Years: The agency 1 percent forfeiture and reinstatement cliff.
• FERS Redeposit for Refunded Service: Buying back the annuity rights a refund voids.
• Deferred vs Postponed FERS Retirement: The MRA+10 election and its 5 percent a year reduction.
• Federal Benefits Misconceptions That Cost Money: The 30 to 40 percent folk figure, among others.
• Federal Total Compensation Calculator: A benefits-inclusive view of a federal package.
• FEHB Calculator: Your plan's 2026 government share.

Sources

• OPM Salary Table 2026-RUS
• OPM Salary Table 2026-DCB
• OPM 2026 FEHB fee-for-service premium rates (xlsx)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8415 (annuity computation; the 1.1 percent and MRA+10 rules)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8401 (average pay; further revised annuity employee)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8410 (five-year eligibility)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8413 (deferred retirement)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8422 (FERS deductions)
• 26 U.S.C. § 3101 (OASDI employee rate)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8432 (TSP agency contributions and vesting)
• 5 U.S.C. § 5304 (locality pay as basic pay)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8906 (FEHB government contribution)
• 5 U.S.C. § 6303 (annual leave accrual)
• 5 U.S.C. § 6307 (sick leave)
• 5 U.S.C. § 5551 (lump-sum leave payment)
• 5 U.S.C. § 5504 (the 2,087-hour divisor)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8424 (lump-sum credit; annuity rights voided)
• 5 U.S.C. § 8905 (FEHB five-year rule)
• KFF 2025 Employer Health Benefits Survey