Last Updated: October 2, 2026

UPDATE, August 2, 2026: both rules this post anticipated are now FINAL. The forced-distribution rule (FR 2026-13715) takes effect August 6, and the RIF rule (FR 2026-15665) takes effect September 2 with a NEW scoring system that replaces the old service-credit math described below: your three most recent ratings score 7/5/3/0 points directly, and three Outstandings (21 points) versus three Fully Successfuls (9 points) is now a 12-point gap that tenure cannot repair. Update, October 8, 2026: the ten-year QSI-plus-award dollar totals this paragraph carried earlier were removed. They could not be reproduced from stated inputs (starting steps, QSI timing, step progression and award assumptions) and they predate OPM's September 21, 2026 award parameters. A ten-year figure will return only with its inputs shown.

OPM's forced distribution rule has been explained to death as policy. What almost nobody has done is put a dollar figure on what it does to you. So here it is, as an illustration: for a GS-13 at Step 5 in the D.C. locality ($138,024), OPM's September 21 award parameters put a Level 5 award at 7% of pay or more ($9,661.68) and a Level 3 award at 3% or less ($4,140.72, or nothing if the agency pays none). If an agency follows those parameters, a forced downgrade from Level 5 to Level 3 is a gap of $5,520.96 at the edges of the ranges, and $9,661.68 if Level 3 gets nothing. A Level 5 award above the 7% minimum widens the gap. The downgrade also removes QSI eligibility and costs 4 RIF retention points for that one rating (7 for Level 5 minus 3 for Level 3) once the September 2 rule bites, assuming three actual eligible ratings with the other two unchanged. Awards stay subject to each agency's pool decisions. The full mechanics of the rule live in our forced distribution policy explainer. This page is the personal math and the action list.

Where the Rule Stands (Updated August 2026)

Update, August 19, 2026: OPM has confirmed the forced-distribution requirement applies to the CURRENT ratings cycle, per FedWeek's August 18 reporting, and companion guidance tells agencies what managers should communicate to employees about the new distribution. If your rating of record changes under the new quotas, document your accomplishments now, before your appraisal discussion, not after. Ask HR for the agency's rating cutoff for RIF purposes and confirm when your final rating was issued and placed on record. The award math below was updated October 8 to the September 21 memo.

The rule is no longer proposed. It was finalized as FR 2026-13715 on July 7, 2026, effective August 6, 2026 (the proposal stage was FR 2026-03619, published February 24 with 626 comments). OPM's July 24, 2026 guidance set calibration factors, and its September 21 memo applies a 40% cap on Level 4 and 5 ratings (combined) to the FY2026 closeout.

The companion RIF rule was finalized as FR 2026-15665, effective September 2, 2026. Our full breakdown of the new retention scoring covers it. The practical takeaway stands, with force now: your FY2026 rating feeds both your award and your layoff survival.

The RIF Hit Is the One People Miss

Most coverage focuses on bonuses. The bigger long-term risk is your standing if a reduction in force hits, and which math applies depends on your RIF notice date.

Notices on or after September 2, 2026 (the final rule): your three most recent ratings score points directly. Outstanding = 7, Exceeds Fully Successful = 5, Fully Successful = 3, lower = 0, max 21, plus +5/+3 veterans preference. Three Outstandings beat three Fully Successfuls by 12 points, and length of service only breaks ties. A forced downgrade cycle is a direct, arithmetic demotion on the retention register.

Notices before September 2 (the outgoing system): under 5 CFR 351.504, your retention score adds a performance credit on top of your actual years of service, based on your three most recent ratings of record in the prior four years.

Rating level Retention credit per rating
Level 5 (Outstanding) 20 years
Level 4 (Exceeds Fully Successful) 16 years
Level 3 (Fully Successful) 12 years

Here is what that does to a real profile.

Employee Actual service Rating history Retention credit Effective service
Alex (today) 15 years three Level 5 20 years 35 years
Alex (forced to Level 3) 15 years three Level 3 12 years 27 years
Coworker 20 years three Level 3 12 years 32 years

Before forced distribution, Alex sat above the coworker with 35 effective years to their 32. After a forced cap, Alex drops to 27 and falls below a colleague with five fewer actual years. Under the new point system the story is starker still: Alex at three Outstandings holds 21 points against the coworker's 9, and a forced cap erases the entire margin regardless of anyone's tenure. Either way, the credit is built from your last three ratings, so a strong history buys a buffer this cycle, but the trajectory is what matters.

What Survives and What Doesn't

WGIs survive. This trips people up. A within-grade increase only requires "an acceptable level of competence," which is Level 3. A forced Level 3 does not touch your step progression. You lose a WGI only at Level 1, which separately triggers a performance improvement plan.

QSIs do not survive. A Quality Step Increase requires Level 5. Cap your unit so most people land at Level 3, and the QSI path closes for that cycle. This is permanent money, not a one-time bonus:

Grade Value of one missed QSI (permanent, per year, base pay before locality)
GS-9 ~$1,758
GS-11 ~$2,390
GS-13 ~$3,031
GS-15 ~$4,213

A QSI raises your base pay for the rest of your career and lifts the High-3 average that sets your FERS pension. A GS-13 who misses three QSIs over a career gives up roughly $9,093/year by the time they would reach Step 10, plus the pension drag after that. You can model the step values with our GS Pay Calculator.

The Bonus Math: A GS-13 in D.C., Level 5 Versus Level 3

OPM's September 21, 2026 memo, which supersedes earlier guidance, sets FY2026 GS award parameters of a minimum 7% for Level 5, a minimum 4% for Level 4 and a maximum 3% for Level 3, caps any award at $25,000, and says at least 60% of each pool should go to Levels 4 and 5. GS award pools remain at each agency's discretion, agencies may choose to pay Fully Successful employees no award, and OPM says the guidance is to be implemented consistent with applicable collective bargaining obligations and subject to the availability of appropriations. The percentages apply to basic pay including locality (5 CFR 451.104(g)).

Rating level OPM parameter GS-13 Step 5, D.C. locality ($138,024)
Level 5 Minimum 7% $9,661.68 or more
Level 4 Minimum 4% $5,520.96 or more
Level 3 Maximum 3%; agency may pay $0 $0 to $4,140.72
Level 1 or 2 barred $0

Illustration from the stated inputs: 7% of $138,024 is $9,661.68, 4% is $5,520.96 and 3% is $4,140.72. If an agency pays a Level 5 the 7% minimum and a Level 3 the 3% maximum, the gap is $9,661.68 minus $4,140.72, or $5,520.96; if it pays Level 3 nothing, the gap is $9,661.68. At roughly 29.65% supplemental withholding, the $5,520.96 gap is about $3,884 of take-home pay. Other localities scale with their own pay tables.

Stack it up and a single forced downgrade hits three ways at once: a smaller bonus now, no QSI this cycle, and weaker RIF armor if layoffs come.

What You Can Do Now That the FY2026 Cycle Has Closed

The cycle closed September 30, 2026. Ratings are being calibrated against the 40% cap, and OPM decides any agency waiver by November 20:

  • Get your mid-year progress review in writing. Agencies must hold at least one progress review per cycle under 5 CFR 430.208. Use it to put your performance level on the record.
  • Document accomplishments in your standards' language. Tie each project to a measurable outcome that maps to a critical element. Vague self-assessments don't rebut a forced rating; specifics do.
  • Confirm your written performance plan exists and is current. You cannot challenge a rating against standards that were never documented.
  • Talk to your union representative now if you're represented. Ask whether your contract bars forced distribution. If it does, your unit stays outside the cap until the contract's term ends, and a grievance right in an agreement in effect before the rule was prescribed lasts until it expires.
  • Start an EEO record if you see a pattern. If the cap is falling hardest on a protected group, the 45-day clock to contact an EEO counselor starts at the rating, not later.

If a RIF does follow, model the downstream numbers with our Severance Pay Calculator, and read the RIF Survival Guide 2026 for the full retention-register walkthrough.

Calculate the Pay Impact

Use our free GS Pay Calculator to see the exact dollar value of your steps and QSIs at your grade and locality. Run your numbers now →

Frequently Asked Questions

Does a lower forced rating affect my RIF standing?

Yes, and the mechanics changed. For RIF notices issued on or after September 2, 2026 (final rule FR 2026-15665), your three most recent ratings are scored directly: Outstanding = 7 points, Exceeds Fully Successful = 5, Fully Successful = 3, lower = 0, for a maximum of 21 plus veterans preference points. Three Outstandings score 21; three Fully Successfuls score 9, a 12-point gap that dwarfs tenure, which is now a tiebreaker. Under the old system (notices before September 2), the same downgrade cost 8 years of retention service credit.

Will a forced Level 3 rating affect my within-grade increase (WGI)?

No. WGIs are safe at Level 3. Under 5 CFR 531.404, a step increase requires only an acceptable level of competence, which corresponds to Level 3 (Fully Successful). You only lose a WGI at Level 1 (Unacceptable), which triggers a denial and a PIP. The damage from forced distribution lands on QSIs and awards, not your base step progression.

Will this affect my Quality Step Increase (QSI) eligibility?

Yes, completely. QSIs under 5 USC 5336 require a Level 5 (Outstanding) rating. If forced distribution caps your unit so most people land at Level 3, you become ineligible for a QSI that cycle. A QSI is a permanent raise worth roughly $1,758 (GS-9) to $4,213 (GS-15) per year, and it lifts the High-3 salary used in your FERS pension, so the cost compounds for the rest of your career.

Can I grieve a rating I believe is wrong?

Only under a grandfathered contract. The appraisal rule is now final (FR 2026-13715, effective August 6, 2026): a rating of record is “not subject to negotiated grievance procedures or arbitration under 5 U.S.C. 7121, regardless of collective bargaining coverage.” The rule grandfathers agreements only: “Where a collective bargaining agreement contains a provision that permits a bargaining unit employee to grieve a rating of record and the agreement is in effect before the date this rule is prescribed, such a grievance will continue up until the term of the agreement expires.” Other channels are narrower: agency reconsideration, an EEO complaint if the rating reflects a protected-class pattern, an OSC disclosure if it looks retaliatory, or an MSPB appeal, which generally attaches only after an adverse action follows the rating.

What can I do now that FY2026 ratings are being calibrated?

Ask HR for the agency's published FY2026 caps and whether it requested a waiver (due Oct 30; OPM decides by Nov 20); keep your performance plan and accomplishments on file; if you are union-represented, ask whether your contract keeps your unit outside the cap.

Could forced distribution count as discrimination?

It can. If the system produces a statistically significant pattern where women, minorities, older employees, or employees with disabilities receive lower ratings at higher rates than similar colleagues, that supports a disparate-impact EEO complaint under Title VII, the ADEA, or the Rehabilitation Act. You do not have to prove intent. The deadline to contact an EEO counselor is 45 days from the rating.

Sources: Federal Register FR 2026-03619, 5 CFR 351.504, 5 CFR 531.404, OPM QSI Fact Sheet, OPM September 21, 2026 Memo, OPM August 2025 Awards Memo, FedWeek.